Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-08-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85592 12892 1147 408 17 0 0 0
OW 0 0 98 637 130 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 288 463 92 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 293 332 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 101 1726 2436 679
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6 1329 407
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84088 14328 1335 530 12 0 0 0
OW 0 0 58 699 91 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 341 378 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 105 491 68 36 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 636 1903 2654 168
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 60 1053 38
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86371 11533 2075 573 9 0 0 0
OW 0 0 34 640 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 485 255 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 965 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1144 1537 59 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 101 1488 1720 3
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84418 14012 1403 771 12 0 0 0
OW 0 0 25 638 83 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 342 367 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 808 127 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 638 1217 696 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 333 2591 546
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84418 14012 1389 852 21 0 0 0
OW 0 0 39 565 89 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 335 356 32 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 850 120 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 592 1207 736 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 348 2546 546

Date: 2015-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84637 13800 1478 646 45 5 0 0
OW 0 4 71 429 192 23 1 0
VODI 0 0 13 187 360 176 25 0
ODI 0 0 0 43 175 432 310 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 89 790 1701 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 10 1116 2332
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84637 13790 1474 715 49 15 0 0
OW 0 14 70 332 210 23 1 0
VODI 0 0 18 218 307 153 34 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 209 435 282 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 86 799 1698 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 11 1138 2333

Date: 2015-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86884 12345 1130 245 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 129 434 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 430 149 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 371 65 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 35 446 113 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 129 2794 3339
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86884 12322 1083 484 31 2 0 0
OW 0 23 131 362 102 18 0 0
VODI 0 0 45 263 266 158 14 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 174 244 473 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 14 150 1748 562
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 70 672 2778

Date: 2015-08-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87478 11905 953 274 2 0 0 0
OW 0 10 82 453 27 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 27 294 141 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 55 197 108 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 96 226 322 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 91 2490 3825
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87478 11848 886 533 38 13 2 0
OW 0 49 110 330 129 47 23 0
VODI 0 18 66 164 185 178 162 0
ODI 0 0 0 56 102 153 578 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 13 57 1469 590
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 583 3236

Date: 2015-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85755 13537 936 320 4 0 0 0
OW 0 23 105 394 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 47 280 143 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 83 192 69 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 127 323 331 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 26 153 2430 3742
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85755 13481 909 546 54 5 0 0
OW 0 51 118 320 137 80 8 0
VODI 0 28 63 164 189 218 123 0
ODI 0 0 2 80 112 174 526 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 22 78 1504 519
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 5 603 3226


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