Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-08-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2026 12480 1134 130 0 0 0 0
OW 0 31 483 614 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 71 1018 321 46 2 0
ODI 0 0 4 245 1491 968 138 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 1994 4912 2062 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 93 1407 348 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2331 12365 1046 106 4 0 0 0
OW 0 57 549 528 67 2 0 0
VODI 0 2 92 929 307 118 69 0
ODI 0 0 11 240 1156 605 1257 17
CDI 0 0 1 43 1611 3971 3384 66
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 570 560 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3619 11601 1021 102 0 0 0 0
OW 0 17 551 467 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 51 988 239 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 155 1187 330 36 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 926 1483 3164 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 258 932 4548 380
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2881 12927 852 119 0 0 0 0
OW 0 220 514 390 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 169 791 268 7 2 0
ODI 0 0 4 209 509 464 601 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 1395 1061 3038 151
VCDI 0 0 0 0 370 1373 2393 1297
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2881 12963 906 180 0 0 0 0
OW 0 178 460 340 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 165 768 264 11 15 0
ODI 0 0 7 227 501 469 670 0
CDI 0 0 1 39 1225 954 2992 183
VCDI 0 0 0 0 551 1471 2357 1265

Date: 2015-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3023 13176 705 90 0 0 0 0
OW 0 479 441 322 21 2 0 0
VODI 0 107 293 686 137 42 24 0
ODI 0 8 75 344 401 219 560 120
CDI 0 0 28 154 570 1080 3010 1114
VCDI 0 0 0 17 45 47 1425 3317
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3023 13120 729 115 0 0 0 0
OW 0 482 405 297 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 157 309 667 160 58 11 0
ODI 0 11 72 374 353 213 659 146
CDI 0 0 27 142 596 1018 2859 976
VCDI 0 0 0 18 50 101 1490 3429

Date: 2015-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4085 13149 835 118 0 0 0 0
OW 0 224 600 301 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 90 763 42 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 223 453 35 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 253 627 135 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 24 145 4960 4977
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4085 12360 575 152 1 0 0 0
OW 0 613 331 236 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 348 426 478 139 38 5 0
ODI 0 42 129 375 250 187 578 104
CDI 0 17 64 174 312 495 3737 760
VCDI 0 0 7 19 61 87 775 4113

Date: 2015-08-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3995 13673 744 168 11 0 0 0
OW 0 288 411 188 41 13 0 0
VODI 0 47 186 398 91 92 0 0
ODI 0 5 63 287 185 67 63 0
CDI 0 0 15 196 296 328 417 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 118 769 4358 4556
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3995 12606 559 111 17 3 0 0
OW 0 734 294 167 35 33 0 0
VODI 0 444 306 409 141 85 24 0
ODI 0 118 142 292 190 167 619 0
CDI 0 101 95 227 296 811 3280 489
VCDI 0 10 23 44 63 170 915 4067

Date: 2015-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3269 14155 978 74 0 0 0 0
OW 0 555 275 199 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 127 320 362 31 0 0 0
ODI 0 27 127 413 117 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 63 265 405 413 442 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 112 705 4303 4310
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3269 12973 843 126 12 0 0 0
OW 0 985 233 155 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 548 380 451 62 0 0 0
ODI 0 215 155 330 227 195 406 0
CDI 0 139 128 240 307 703 3398 266
VCDI 0 4 24 33 44 233 941 4044


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