Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-08-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6487 11244 2216 638 21 0 0 0
OW 0 55 1234 1666 87 2 0 0
VODI 0 39 139 4640 688 30 0 0
ODI 0 28 6 501 2652 706 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 279 1309 3833 1626 706
VCDI 0 0 0 1 131 1768 2889 230
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6269 11417 2585 592 4 0 0 0
OW 0 45 1391 1913 97 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 183 4056 768 13 2 0
ODI 0 8 16 485 2951 324 96 0
CDI 0 0 135 253 1428 2624 2038 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 2 930 4498 718
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7204 10488 3296 492 1 0 0 0
OW 0 16 1117 1367 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 124 4209 552 12 0 0
ODI 0 15 35 384 3432 536 13 0
CDI 0 41 61 105 937 2093 506 0
VCDI 0 0 17 6 235 2059 4612 1878
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5546 12689 2851 651 3 0 0 0
OW 0 122 1058 1520 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 175 3542 743 12 1 0
ODI 0 13 15 461 2364 921 140 0
CDI 0 42 73 76 349 1713 1341 59
VCDI 0 0 2 4 0 269 5142 3892
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5546 12685 2915 747 1 0 0 0
OW 0 126 943 1301 68 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 227 3547 815 17 0 0
ODI 0 14 14 575 2265 890 105 0
CDI 0 41 75 81 381 1748 1471 76
VCDI 0 0 0 3 0 260 5048 3875

Date: 2015-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5925 13184 2262 545 0 0 0 0
OW 0 254 1166 1526 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 261 3144 868 20 0 0
ODI 0 17 11 428 1825 661 410 0
CDI 0 70 54 62 303 1637 1997 7
VCDI 0 0 0 3 0 150 3692 5332
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5925 13204 2376 657 0 0 0 0
OW 0 234 1028 1217 57 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 286 3219 892 28 0 0
ODI 0 22 13 543 1780 670 376 0
CDI 0 63 51 71 310 1579 2163 11
VCDI 0 0 0 1 0 191 3560 5328

Date: 2015-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7118 12746 2427 510 12 0 0 0
OW 0 113 1019 1097 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 111 3349 290 0 0 0
ODI 0 32 21 366 2707 132 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 628 2391 95 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 1 584 4943 5101
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7118 12242 2433 775 19 0 0 0
OW 0 509 715 1221 76 0 0 0
VODI 0 95 310 2816 917 10 0 0
ODI 0 20 62 461 1967 481 50 0
CDI 0 59 58 78 668 2238 2206 74
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 378 2783 5027

Date: 2015-08-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7117 12868 2464 681 2 0 0 0
OW 0 450 921 1070 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 71 1046 2042 279 24 4 0
ODI 0 21 22 830 1207 494 338 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 509 1646 1331 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 0 643 4526 5205
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7117 12326 2596 991 8 0 0 0
OW 0 677 649 1112 78 10 0 0
VODI 0 304 1039 2000 476 100 105 0
ODI 0 85 101 500 920 608 573 0
CDI 0 18 67 62 519 1804 2786 174
VCDI 0 0 1 0 9 285 2735 5031

Date: 2015-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6167 14871 1810 534 5 0 0 0
OW 0 853 1143 689 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 189 721 1931 267 16 2 0
ODI 0 16 70 1274 1209 148 29 0
CDI 0 0 0 175 2254 898 218 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 260 1621 3876 4574
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6167 13946 1951 924 42 0 0 0
OW 0 974 638 972 120 0 0 0
VODI 0 847 912 1744 450 6 0 0
ODI 0 135 203 843 1284 125 1 0
CDI 0 25 23 120 2092 2025 768 0
VCDI 0 2 17 0 53 527 3356 4574


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