Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-08-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94105 36616 4497 1176 38 0 0 0
OW 0 86 1815 2917 238 2 0 0
VODI 0 39 212 5946 1472 168 2 0
ODI 0 28 10 769 4436 2006 155 0
CDI 0 0 0 322 3404 10471 6124 1385
VCDI 0 0 0 1 224 3181 4566 637
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92688 38110 4966 1228 20 0 0 0
OW 0 102 1998 3140 255 4 0 0
VODI 0 26 280 5326 1453 150 71 0
ODI 0 8 27 830 4598 997 1389 17
CDI 0 0 136 298 3675 8498 8076 234
VCDI 0 0 0 1 20 1560 6111 756
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97194 33622 6392 1167 10 0 0 0
OW 0 33 1702 2474 59 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 176 5682 1046 13 0 0
ODI 0 15 36 586 5584 898 49 0
CDI 0 41 61 121 3007 5113 3729 0
VCDI 0 0 17 7 594 4479 10880 2261
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92845 39628 5106 1541 15 0 0 0
OW 0 342 1597 2548 176 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 344 4675 1378 49 3 0
ODI 0 13 19 692 3681 1512 759 0
CDI 0 42 73 121 2382 3991 5075 210
VCDI 0 0 2 4 373 1975 10126 5735
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92845 39660 5210 1779 22 0 0 0
OW 0 304 1442 2206 180 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 392 4650 1435 60 15 0
ODI 0 14 21 823 3616 1479 798 0
CDI 0 41 76 120 2198 3909 5199 259
VCDI 0 0 0 3 554 2079 9951 5686

Date: 2015-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93585 40160 4445 1281 45 5 0 0
OW 0 737 1678 2277 256 25 1 0
VODI 0 116 567 4017 1365 238 49 0
ODI 0 25 86 815 2401 1312 1280 120
CDI 0 70 82 216 962 3507 6708 1131
VCDI 0 0 0 20 45 207 6233 10981
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93585 40114 4579 1487 49 15 0 0
OW 0 730 1503 1846 282 23 1 0
VODI 0 168 613 4104 1359 239 45 0
ODI 0 33 85 957 2342 1318 1317 146
CDI 0 63 78 213 992 3396 6720 996
VCDI 0 0 0 19 50 303 6188 11090

Date: 2015-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98087 38240 4392 873 13 0 0 0
OW 0 337 1748 1832 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 201 4542 481 2 0 0
ODI 0 32 28 616 3531 232 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 54 916 3464 343 1
VCDI 0 0 0 4 25 858 12697 13417
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98087 36924 4091 1411 51 2 0 0
OW 0 1145 1177 1819 187 18 0 0
VODI 0 443 781 3557 1322 206 19 0
ODI 0 62 191 863 2391 912 1101 104
CDI 0 76 122 252 994 2883 7691 1396
VCDI 0 0 7 19 61 535 4230 11918

Date: 2015-08-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98590 38446 4161 1123 15 0 0 0
OW 0 748 1414 1711 81 14 0 0
VODI 0 118 1259 2734 511 142 4 0
ODI 0 26 85 1172 1589 669 406 0
CDI 0 0 15 244 901 2200 2070 1
VCDI 0 0 0 14 122 1503 11374 13586
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98590 36780 4041 1635 63 16 2 0
OW 0 1460 1053 1609 242 90 23 0
VODI 0 766 1411 2573 802 363 291 0
ODI 0 203 243 848 1212 928 1770 0
CDI 0 119 162 289 828 2672 7535 1253
VCDI 0 10 24 44 72 459 4233 12334

Date: 2015-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95191 42563 3724 928 9 0 0 0
OW 0 1431 1523 1282 68 0 0 0
VODI 0 316 1088 2573 441 31 2 0
ODI 0 43 201 1770 1518 230 32 0
CDI 0 0 63 473 2786 1634 991 3
VCDI 0 0 0 22 398 2479 10609 12626
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95191 40400 3703 1596 108 5 0 0
OW 0 2010 989 1447 270 80 8 0
VODI 0 1423 1355 2359 701 224 123 0
ODI 0 350 360 1253 1623 494 933 0
CDI 0 164 151 360 2421 2806 5670 785
VCDI 0 6 41 33 97 765 4900 11844


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