Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-08-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79400 17457 1818 835 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 36 578 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 594 418 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 49 624 44 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 888 832 487 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 90 3937 958 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84250 12953 1693 768 3 0 0 0
OW 0 0 48 645 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 739 217 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 175 493 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 1197 720 569 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 54 2518 1988 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80779 16653 1755 604 2 0 0 0
OW 0 0 113 559 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 10 723 374 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 68 713 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1122 2324 475 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1401 1375 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84375 13833 1295 491 6 0 0 0
OW 0 10 107 675 56 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 424 495 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 507 152 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 314 2352 1466 349
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 496 1518 160
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84375 13838 1300 571 6 0 0 0
OW 0 5 100 591 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 422 449 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 529 168 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 325 2414 1452 360
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 415 1531 149

Date: 2015-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84583 13673 1422 441 24 0 0 0
OW 0 1 84 664 99 18 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 317 333 143 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 81 297 260 33 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 202 1549 2567 884
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1124 294
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84583 13674 1430 560 28 0 0 0
OW 0 0 74 516 112 23 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 329 305 138 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 91 284 277 38 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 226 1532 2565 849
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1120 329

Date: 2015-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87451 11110 1297 436 10 0 0 0
OW 0 0 170 533 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 11 597 204 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 44 990 40 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 638 2188 80 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 250 2991 13
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87451 11109 1338 686 28 0 0 0
OW 0 1 99 457 111 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 31 338 334 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 10 117 516 49 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 883 2348 1993 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 77 1060 11

Date: 2015-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85375 13130 1399 724 7 0 0 0
OW 0 0 20 659 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 416 318 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 954 30 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1347 1246 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 60 1208 1618 502
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85375 13129 1380 898 14 0 0 0
OW 0 1 36 513 146 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 290 320 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 123 547 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 1699 2356 1193 187
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 113 444 315

Date: 2015-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83634 14338 1781 829 12 0 0 0
OW 0 0 51 555 130 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 286 453 15 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 547 327 80 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 111 1068 1358 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 110 2742 656
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83634 14332 1775 965 83 0 0 0
OW 0 6 53 407 207 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 224 331 34 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 90 395 178 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 237 1283 3734 637
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 25 434 19


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