Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-08-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2444 13178 2605 843 59 0 0 0
OW 0 58 676 1409 75 14 0 0
VODI 0 15 61 4679 1741 126 27 0
ODI 0 42 4 538 2913 1694 969 0
CDI 0 39 9 244 822 5016 2369 0
VCDI 0 5 4 164 3 615 2253 153
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2675 13217 2576 887 44 0 0 0
OW 0 40 916 1350 89 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 104 5034 1392 145 1 0
ODI 0 0 38 538 2593 1448 1054 0
CDI 0 0 48 161 571 3626 4206 12
VCDI 0 0 0 123 7 1489 1480 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4777 11808 2843 683 26 0 0 0
OW 0 3 934 1519 34 2 0 0
VODI 0 30 38 5310 738 29 0 0
ODI 0 44 14 402 3302 361 3 0
CDI 0 4 7 323 699 3985 1976 0
VCDI 0 0 0 42 43 2970 2917 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5331 11920 2563 640 12 0 0 0
OW 0 7 920 1801 55 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 91 4512 1091 48 0 0
ODI 0 17 31 497 2647 644 141 0
CDI 0 0 0 243 1374 2988 2180 960
VCDI 0 0 0 24 1 2149 2503 454
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5331 11919 2693 818 12 0 0 0
OW 0 9 758 1687 80 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 129 4378 1144 44 0 0
ODI 0 14 24 571 2541 697 127 0
CDI 0 0 1 240 1378 3138 2200 859
VCDI 0 0 0 23 25 1950 2497 555

Date: 2015-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5775 12212 2211 559 9 0 0 0
OW 0 59 1452 1645 89 6 0 0
VODI 0 40 161 4432 636 48 1 0
ODI 0 27 2 475 2925 323 85 0
CDI 0 0 87 232 1066 3292 2054 80
VCDI 0 0 0 1 4 896 3966 1016
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5775 12241 2530 656 17 0 0 0
OW 0 32 1151 1603 73 2 0 0
VODI 0 38 145 4304 754 52 0 0
ODI 0 27 2 549 2763 349 99 0
CDI 0 0 85 232 1122 3352 2004 79
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 810 4003 1017

Date: 2015-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7726 10350 2602 500 0 0 0 0
OW 0 19 1188 1217 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 87 4670 464 1 0 0
ODI 0 12 32 391 3983 235 10 0
CDI 0 38 70 158 583 2761 199 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 4 2005 5848 680
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7726 10323 2762 758 8 0 0 0
OW 0 20 935 1968 169 4 0 0
VODI 0 15 175 3446 1120 48 3 0
ODI 0 11 3 568 2573 424 59 0
CDI 0 51 89 199 1186 3025 1894 0
VCDI 0 0 15 3 4 1501 4101 680

Date: 2015-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5833 12310 2955 506 0 0 0 0
OW 0 55 1097 1512 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 132 3890 595 5 0 0
ODI 0 18 26 467 2787 780 98 0
CDI 0 44 56 106 559 1912 913 56
VCDI 0 0 13 10 92 730 4269 4010
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5833 12214 2911 880 1 0 0 0
OW 0 125 1017 1972 138 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 245 3023 1079 67 0 0
ODI 0 1 12 483 2212 502 61 0
CDI 0 26 59 111 626 2574 2453 128
VCDI 0 40 35 22 2 284 2766 3938

Date: 2015-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6208 12025 2913 658 3 0 0 0
OW 0 148 1096 1597 52 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 179 3348 857 7 2 0
ODI 0 13 16 402 2062 605 515 0
CDI 0 39 78 57 211 1010 2387 12
VCDI 0 0 0 4 0 118 5875 3364
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6208 11977 2886 1243 19 0 0 0
OW 0 188 1027 1754 221 1 0 0
VODI 0 9 267 2621 1126 116 14 0
ODI 0 0 4 369 1581 673 242 0
CDI 0 18 40 66 217 830 4153 366
VCDI 0 38 58 13 21 120 4370 3010


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