Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-08-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4584 9865 2257 1288 110 0 0 0
OW 0 4 272 1398 168 25 0 0
VODI 0 0 18 4791 2347 80 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 380 3861 976 32 0
CDI 0 0 2 125 1598 8217 2848 0
VCDI 0 0 4 100 311 146 55 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4514 9710 2669 1651 103 8 0 0
OW 0 27 179 1458 233 24 0 0
VODI 0 2 196 4092 3022 66 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 818 3589 782 0 0
CDI 0 0 34 307 2506 6776 2580 1
VCDI 0 0 9 65 312 46 62 7
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4076 11227 2432 1076 55 17 0 0
OW 0 23 649 1177 79 17 0 0
VODI 0 2 31 5813 682 31 0 0
ODI 0 0 40 1166 4264 1123 53 0
CDI 0 0 66 309 1316 6500 349 0
VCDI 0 1 13 92 44 508 2002 633
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-06:

Best estimate Forecast
...observations not yet available ...observations not yet available

Date: 2015-08-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2854 13115 2488 759 48 0 0 0
OW 0 38 852 1304 81 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 89 4831 1609 127 5 0
ODI 0 15 29 604 2578 1528 1245 0
CDI 0 0 50 181 403 3736 4146 0
VCDI 0 0 0 108 14 1930 1073 26
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2854 13078 2715 826 50 0 0 0
OW 0 75 633 1400 85 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 86 4632 1729 177 22 0
ODI 0 15 30 635 2428 1440 1242 0
CDI 0 0 44 178 427 3788 4207 0
VCDI 0 0 0 116 14 1913 998 26

Date: 2015-08-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3494 13122 2555 600 38 3 0 0
OW 0 0 968 1294 28 5 0 0
VODI 0 5 10 5845 483 22 0 0
ODI 0 73 6 368 3484 273 13 0
CDI 0 4 0 197 661 6039 333 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 0 793 4903 233
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3494 13038 2577 762 49 6 0 0
OW 0 84 752 1547 58 17 0 0
VODI 0 1 198 4999 1226 213 16 0
ODI 0 60 12 766 2664 1364 352 0
CDI 0 21 0 146 672 3827 3897 0
VCDI 0 0 0 98 25 1708 984 233

Date: 2015-08-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5198 10999 3100 993 28 0 0 0
OW 0 2 914 1679 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 38 4929 908 2 0 0
ODI 0 44 12 446 3245 344 0 0
CDI 0 5 5 321 793 4115 2185 0
VCDI 0 0 1 43 0 2522 2910 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5198 10919 2867 1232 43 0 0 0
OW 0 77 915 1584 147 1 0 0
VODI 0 29 225 4509 1657 232 0 0
ODI 0 48 54 683 2753 1410 136 0
CDI 0 14 7 250 422 4592 2725 0
VCDI 0 0 2 153 0 748 2234 0

Date: 2015-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6487 11244 2216 638 21 0 0 0
OW 0 55 1234 1666 87 2 0 0
VODI 0 39 139 4640 688 30 0 0
ODI 0 28 6 501 2652 706 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 279 1309 3833 1626 706
VCDI 0 0 0 1 131 1768 2889 230
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6487 11037 2238 935 49 0 0 0
OW 0 192 863 1628 147 15 0 0
VODI 0 93 445 4192 1478 226 16 0
ODI 0 36 48 702 2255 1763 91 0
CDI 0 8 1 151 873 3976 3170 259
VCDI 0 0 0 117 86 359 1253 677


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