Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-07-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-07-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77724 16931 1783 1114 78 0 0 0
OW 0 0 131 715 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 29 743 430 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 139 722 101 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 579 5396 989 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 30 1374 22 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78615 16025 1956 1154 49 0 0 0
OW 0 4 123 798 56 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 18 739 471 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 124 618 129 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 535 5114 684 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 1659 206 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80081 15001 1738 1232 75 0 0 0
OW 0 0 51 746 74 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 513 695 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 851 116 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 351 2954 2774 338
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 20 1079 369
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80371 15168 1877 1021 24 0 0 0
OW 0 1 98 822 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 746 401 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 91 776 54 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 610 5058 928 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 619 380 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80371 15168 1910 1132 30 0 0 0
OW 0 1 67 762 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 705 367 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 80 748 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 660 5058 904 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 666 404 0

Date: 2015-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81670 14711 1717 700 15 0 0 0
OW 0 21 146 730 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 26 597 380 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 114 564 230 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 270 3381 3338 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 29 357 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81670 14711 1747 860 27 0 0 0
OW 0 21 119 585 63 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 23 584 297 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 113 611 176 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 297 3425 3257 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 37 438 0

Date: 2015-08-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82900 13982 1496 688 20 0 0 0
OW 0 0 102 544 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 596 275 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 729 142 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 166 1176 145 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 325 4589 1142
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82900 13971 1486 892 46 0 0 0
OW 0 11 104 540 117 10 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 377 414 57 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 66 441 399 43 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 208 1170 4627 921
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 7 57 221

Date: 2015-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81481 15270 1762 846 31 0 0 0
OW 0 0 38 518 77 26 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 344 438 110 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 55 649 71 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 601 908 240 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 49 2020 3104 448
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81481 15270 1695 973 50 0 0 0
OW 0 0 101 469 167 42 1 0
VODI 0 0 7 255 491 117 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 65 678 173 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 459 2803 3319 448
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Date: 2015-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79400 17457 1818 835 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 36 578 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 594 418 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 49 624 44 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 888 832 487 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 90 3937 958 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79400 17453 1763 956 11 0 0 0
OW 0 4 83 611 103 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 11 396 497 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 79 732 133 74 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 724 4656 1359 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 20 16 0


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