Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-07-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-07-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81878 35656 5272 2528 197 10 0 0
OW 12 230 1296 3058 274 22 0 0
VODI 6 85 256 7230 3260 97 6 0
ODI 0 2 1 1457 10297 2064 23 0
CDI 0 18 18 214 2711 20103 3256 0
VCDI 0 12 21 133 501 4164 680 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84048 34941 4901 2515 159 1 0 0
OW 0 512 1406 3361 361 37 0 0
VODI 0 50 332 7248 3886 137 12 0
ODI 0 1 16 1448 8941 2995 95 0
CDI 0 6 24 194 2216 18708 2013 0
VCDI 0 8 23 72 458 5443 480 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85181 35338 5770 2716 151 1 0 0
OW 0 10 686 3145 225 5 1 0
VODI 0 2 35 7675 2647 54 7 0
ODI 0 0 2 650 10061 1198 23 0
CDI 0 5 17 175 1820 21081 5213 338
VCDI 0 5 17 46 318 473 1588 369
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85238 36216 5791 2834 117 0 0 0
OW 0 43 720 3452 206 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 47 7061 3733 84 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 578 8041 2335 175 0
CDI 0 0 15 204 2256 21300 4663 39
VCDI 0 0 27 116 246 836 668 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85238 36223 5859 3316 141 0 0 0
OW 0 39 634 3062 209 1 0 0
VODI 0 2 65 6734 3759 46 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 818 8010 2333 129 0
CDI 0 0 14 189 2226 21282 4577 38
VCDI 0 0 26 126 254 893 800 1

Date: 2015-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87279 35642 5917 2396 98 4 0 0
OW 0 86 883 3303 229 17 2 0
VODI 0 5 137 7020 3734 179 25 0
ODI 0 0 2 611 6821 3852 169 0
CDI 0 0 3 267 2850 18316 6192 1
VCDI 0 0 3 67 379 140 419 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87279 35634 6002 2861 106 4 0 0
OW 0 96 794 2958 240 13 1 0
VODI 0 3 142 6611 3556 147 26 0
ODI 0 0 2 898 6802 3764 194 0
CDI 0 0 2 274 3047 18415 6041 1
VCDI 0 0 3 62 360 165 545 0

Date: 2015-08-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90729 33936 5381 1999 89 4 0 0
OW 0 23 1164 2305 99 16 0 0
VODI 0 0 60 7664 1387 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 17 911 9526 518 0 0
CDI 0 0 42 269 1675 14122 723 0
VCDI 0 0 11 50 55 1051 11377 1817
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90729 33808 5322 2696 146 7 0 0
OW 0 144 992 2935 387 36 0 0
VODI 0 7 280 6006 4081 276 7 0
ODI 0 0 16 1084 5683 4769 878 0
CDI 0 0 48 359 2456 10475 11098 1466
VCDI 0 0 17 118 78 176 117 351

Date: 2015-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85918 38903 5926 2272 98 23 0 0
OW 0 16 1038 2742 203 37 11 0
VODI 0 0 40 6875 2287 175 24 0
ODI 0 10 35 868 6060 2742 314 0
CDI 0 15 44 288 1980 8601 6254 0
VCDI 0 4 0 180 95 3379 8568 1023
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85918 38652 5634 2973 152 27 0 0
OW 0 255 990 3200 536 86 26 0
VODI 0 12 373 5443 3945 717 153 0
ODI 0 9 19 974 4538 4749 3271 0
CDI 0 17 64 487 1480 9286 11586 1023
VCDI 0 3 3 148 72 92 135 0

Date: 2015-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83688 42575 5520 1806 59 0 0 0
OW 0 200 1230 2678 127 14 5 0
VODI 0 23 188 6391 2854 133 45 0
ODI 0 42 6 694 5043 2673 1366 0
CDI 0 39 9 251 2117 10629 4388 0
VCDI 0 5 4 165 148 7532 4248 153
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83688 42443 5369 2524 95 1 0 0
OW 0 295 1165 3418 712 69 24 0
VODI 0 59 386 4745 4043 1056 326 0
ODI 0 16 24 764 4214 7495 1823 0
CDI 0 71 13 402 1260 12234 7752 153
VCDI 0 0 0 132 24 126 127 0


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