Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-07-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77378 16372 1731 1215 78 0 0 0
OW 0 21 141 733 127 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 52 567 727 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 270 887 92 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 66 480 1466 2538 147
VCDI 0 0 0 1 63 631 2564 729
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79316 14659 1727 1226 86 18 0 0
OW 0 45 162 678 189 15 0 0
VODI 0 1 86 501 775 33 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 206 658 163 58 0
CDI 0 0 0 54 342 2623 2268 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 1918 1259 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78348 16100 1892 974 78 11 0 0
OW 0 0 73 720 72 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 609 473 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 86 905 237 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 193 5947 960 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 1210 175 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78667 15821 1832 1164 62 9 0 0
OW 0 0 110 705 65 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 25 622 490 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 82 779 180 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 328 5389 1338 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 1315 37 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78667 15819 1830 1206 75 9 0 0
OW 0 2 113 673 82 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 24 625 543 29 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 75 692 126 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 335 5599 1342 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 1154 36 0

Date: 2015-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76842 17820 1844 1134 62 0 0 0
OW 0 5 112 767 62 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 20 661 531 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 109 703 100 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 543 5400 567 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 1475 295 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76842 17816 1851 1216 67 0 0 0
OW 0 8 101 673 86 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 25 701 522 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 84 652 69 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 576 5467 591 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 1441 271 0

Date: 2015-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78227 16691 1860 1059 42 0 0 0
OW 0 0 81 743 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 983 295 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 52 975 51 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 265 5028 513 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 271 1938 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78227 16675 1845 1210 47 0 0 0
OW 0 12 70 840 60 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 24 692 419 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 87 609 123 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 468 4274 2082 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 953 369 0

Date: 2015-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79285 16124 1716 1119 39 0 0 0
OW 0 2 57 805 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 657 554 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 55 828 69 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 454 4195 1904 29
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 117 1046 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79285 16090 1675 1222 44 0 0 0
OW 0 26 76 840 107 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 20 467 551 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 10 94 617 176 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 582 4135 2831 29
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 70 118 0

Date: 2015-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79972 16009 1871 773 28 0 0 0
OW 0 5 156 754 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 27 729 350 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 99 672 127 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 420 4791 1510 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 446 306 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79972 15982 1848 898 40 0 0 0
OW 0 29 160 707 126 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 43 560 324 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 161 459 273 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 562 5059 1816 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 9 0 0


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