Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-07-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78977 31741 5500 2786 173 0 0 0
OW 0 177 1261 3240 435 8 0 0
VODI 0 41 396 4619 3394 152 0 0
ODI 0 35 55 1816 12655 2410 39 0
CDI 0 29 25 425 4157 15809 4215 147
VCDI 0 0 27 102 574 6841 4058 729
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81962 30358 5162 2755 220 18 0 0
OW 0 355 1447 3203 530 18 0 0
VODI 0 66 473 5123 3665 361 241 0
ODI 0 80 113 2116 10753 2934 674 0
CDI 0 22 51 369 3702 16332 3313 0
VCDI 0 15 6 77 717 8191 1626 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80997 33474 6489 2456 213 14 0 0
OW 1 37 902 2888 251 17 0 0
VODI 0 56 126 6847 2336 54 0 0
ODI 0 16 16 1369 12702 1234 0 0
CDI 0 4 14 98 1903 26358 1306 0
VCDI 0 5 12 114 515 3758 466 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82160 34187 5850 2637 162 17 0 0
OW 0 157 1079 2898 299 24 0 0
VODI 0 122 212 6804 3253 108 1 0
ODI 0 4 7 983 11365 1669 114 0
CDI 0 15 23 147 2091 21880 3510 0
VCDI 0 16 25 139 530 3411 1149 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82160 34175 6103 3029 207 18 0 0
OW 0 173 825 2721 298 25 0 0
VODI 0 119 216 6569 3434 103 1 0
ODI 0 3 7 995 11065 1985 47 0
CDI 0 16 23 157 2186 21803 3736 0
VCDI 0 15 22 137 510 3175 990 0

Date: 2015-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81300 36439 5361 2727 176 1 0 0
OW 7 438 1287 3249 372 21 0 0
VODI 5 68 259 7119 3701 135 0 0
ODI 0 2 11 1474 9682 2457 28 0
CDI 0 15 26 193 2507 19118 2623 0
VCDI 0 10 24 125 450 4443 1195 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81301 36530 5590 3145 231 2 0 0
OW 5 332 1026 2880 359 20 0 0
VODI 6 83 286 7065 3538 112 0 0
ODI 0 2 17 1478 9758 2664 31 0
CDI 0 16 25 201 2553 18974 3031 0
VCDI 0 9 24 118 449 4403 784 0

Date: 2015-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82783 37212 5672 2366 103 0 0 0
OW 0 4 1005 2825 152 6 0 0
VODI 0 1 25 8613 1574 42 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 830 11199 605 1 0
CDI 0 1 26 161 1724 25577 896 0
VCDI 0 5 26 49 308 777 2478 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82783 36710 5105 3135 202 0 0 0
OW 0 421 1201 3340 381 11 0 0
VODI 0 82 372 6617 4201 177 1 0
ODI 0 4 27 1483 7677 4265 139 0
CDI 0 3 24 196 2202 18086 2543 0
VCDI 0 3 27 73 397 4468 692 0

Date: 2015-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82812 37646 6387 2674 131 0 0 0
OW 0 44 701 3305 193 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 82 7632 3051 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 645 8749 1981 30 0
CDI 0 0 22 352 1875 20447 5892 29
VCDI 0 4 12 69 331 553 1365 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82812 37017 5604 3429 250 0 0 0
OW 0 560 1126 3792 677 2 0 0
VODI 0 104 374 5595 4824 505 72 0
ODI 0 15 68 1359 6234 4791 513 0
CDI 0 0 26 393 1948 14950 6056 29
VCDI 0 4 9 109 397 2758 646 0

Date: 2015-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87013 35572 5711 2357 138 0 0 0
OW 0 54 977 3190 247 25 0 0
VODI 0 5 83 6859 3881 176 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 573 7471 3002 75 0
CDI 0 0 2 158 2234 20101 5645 0
VCDI 0 0 4 100 320 710 361 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87013 34953 5126 3424 372 1 0 0
OW 0 520 1199 3433 1064 47 0 0
VODI 0 134 357 4912 5195 1151 11 0
ODI 0 23 83 1137 4767 6020 316 0
CDI 0 1 8 229 2547 14875 5494 0
VCDI 0 0 4 102 346 1920 264 0


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