Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-07-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-07-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100 4801 995 406 8 0 0 0
OW 0 105 326 1108 62 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 136 1782 657 2 0 0
ODI 0 2 27 560 1614 104 0 0
CDI 0 1 21 178 3314 6584 115 0
VCDI 0 0 0 52 237 6247 2525 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98 5018 1106 424 2 0 0 0
OW 0 110 407 1482 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 148 1512 629 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 33 515 1845 224 0 0
CDI 0 1 7 210 2632 7336 770 0
VCDI 0 0 0 38 159 7135 185 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50 5274 1884 425 2 0 0 0
OW 0 11 287 1517 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 9 2039 483 5 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 288 3500 627 55 0
CDI 0 0 0 71 1996 12089 504 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 82 562 300 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 318 5899 1545 293 1 0 0 0
OW 0 48 764 1104 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 133 2054 533 35 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 615 3166 1326 346 0
CDI 0 0 2 100 1619 11106 815 0
VCDI 0 0 6 0 24 100 95 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 318 5903 1699 430 2 0 0 0
OW 0 44 605 1042 27 1 0 0
VODI 0 1 141 1903 514 75 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 708 3058 1378 349 0
CDI 0 0 1 83 1739 10983 805 0
VCDI 0 0 7 0 28 130 102 0

Date: 2015-07-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 323 6356 1482 324 7 0 0 0
OW 0 103 779 1182 70 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 193 1770 1045 135 269 0
ODI 0 0 25 609 2879 1556 1039 0
CDI 0 0 3 113 1564 7389 2376 0
VCDI 0 0 5 0 29 239 212 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 323 6401 1637 432 6 0 0 0
OW 0 58 619 1069 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 198 1759 1004 178 290 0
ODI 0 0 24 628 2852 1649 847 0
CDI 0 0 2 110 1634 7225 2518 0
VCDI 0 0 7 0 57 267 241 0

Date: 2015-07-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 231 7228 1767 301 4 0 0 0
OW 1 13 771 949 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 16 2691 427 9 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 254 4206 415 0 0
CDI 0 2 4 1 451 11156 292 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 170 703 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 231 7071 1541 541 9 0 0 0
OW 0 140 671 932 52 1 0 0
VODI 1 31 299 1934 874 724 75 0
ODI 0 3 42 664 2700 3370 54 0
CDI 0 1 1 125 1400 7425 698 0
VCDI 0 3 4 0 67 230 168 0

Date: 2015-07-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 746 7813 1668 276 1 0 0 0
OW 0 63 642 906 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 31 115 2616 623 12 0 0
ODI 0 4 2 404 3711 903 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 7 497 10414 162 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 323 105 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 746 7360 1324 506 7 0 0 0
OW 0 415 601 773 132 31 0 0
VODI 0 118 400 2028 853 985 114 0
ODI 0 15 102 762 2666 4077 40 0
CDI 0 5 0 139 1127 6263 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 83 296 82 0

Date: 2015-07-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1165 8430 1231 202 0 0 0 0
OW 0 195 808 931 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 76 166 2442 853 15 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 453 3458 1751 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 641 8324 536 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 318 19 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1165 7779 1082 423 8 0 0 0
OW 0 602 677 825 115 191 31 0
VODI 0 282 355 1917 941 1482 39 0
ODI 0 39 91 735 2855 3950 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 138 1080 4521 466 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 264 19 0


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