Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-07-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-07-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 983 7169 2309 1314 59 3 0 0
OW 0 24 161 1406 176 11 0 0
VODI 0 27 99 1352 1829 34 0 0
ODI 0 1 56 410 6450 1207 0 0
CDI 0 11 94 245 4606 9284 290 0
VCDI 0 3 69 119 1132 3395 1538 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1106 7368 2427 1312 124 2 0 0
OW 0 27 226 1429 502 16 0 0
VODI 0 36 113 1152 2088 82 3 0
ODI 0 5 65 450 6280 1182 43 0
CDI 0 43 80 243 5103 4655 3236 0
VCDI 0 4 74 100 786 2827 2677 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1549 8046 2275 1133 94 0 0 0
OW 0 13 208 1412 113 4 0 0
VODI 0 8 79 1916 1169 44 0 0
ODI 0 54 64 637 10518 269 8 0
CDI 0 0 27 164 1322 5557 254 0
VCDI 0 0 7 62 149 2399 4231 2081
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1450 8754 2263 1194 90 0 0 0
OW 0 52 307 1434 249 3 0 0
VODI 0 25 98 1964 1782 22 0 0
ODI 0 27 66 935 9258 162 0 0
CDI 0 0 28 233 2400 4645 73 0
VCDI 0 0 15 93 365 4367 3512 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1450 8757 2317 1536 97 0 0 0
OW 0 47 248 1103 387 4 0 0
VODI 0 28 97 1977 1808 23 0 0
ODI 0 26 63 905 8924 140 0 0
CDI 0 0 37 248 2557 4657 102 0
VCDI 0 0 15 84 371 4375 3483 0

Date: 2015-07-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 613 8527 3723 1478 116 0 0 0
OW 0 54 431 1475 172 6 0 0
VODI 0 25 152 2563 1817 33 0 0
ODI 0 57 30 1276 7875 191 0 0
CDI 0 18 19 217 2289 5428 35 0
VCDI 0 14 2 83 605 6140 402 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 613 8533 3768 1893 119 0 0 0
OW 0 46 410 1172 236 8 0 0
VODI 0 25 121 2580 1883 33 0 0
ODI 0 45 44 1157 7553 229 0 0
CDI 0 32 12 215 2562 5195 23 0
VCDI 0 14 2 75 521 6333 414 0

Date: 2015-07-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2472 9469 2176 1228 83 0 0 0
OW 0 23 337 1155 121 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 64 3302 1193 9 0 0
ODI 0 36 33 670 9237 115 0 0
CDI 0 0 23 86 1525 9702 47 0
VCDI 0 4 12 95 530 1497 585 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2472 9263 1933 1786 137 0 0 0
OW 0 146 379 1141 203 5 0 0
VODI 0 60 152 2500 2629 25 0 0
ODI 0 81 129 826 6805 183 0 0
CDI 0 15 40 197 2238 5720 51 0
VCDI 0 4 12 86 677 5390 581 0

Date: 2015-07-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2463 10187 2493 1133 136 11 0 0
OW 0 39 334 1103 191 18 0 0
VODI 0 40 98 3913 1415 57 0 0
ODI 0 2 4 683 7330 382 4 0
CDI 0 0 12 108 862 9163 425 0
VCDI 0 1 27 100 524 2346 262 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2463 9995 2149 1494 181 19 0 0
OW 0 130 399 1106 240 17 0 0
VODI 0 48 199 3207 2336 59 1 0
ODI 0 83 169 972 5567 385 7 0
CDI 0 12 23 143 1523 5889 229 0
VCDI 0 1 29 118 611 5608 454 0

Date: 2015-07-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2989 10295 2258 1212 119 10 0 0
OW 12 35 357 1412 178 22 0 0
VODI 6 9 61 4045 1977 79 6 0
ODI 0 0 1 865 6117 212 23 0
CDI 0 18 18 185 1491 6383 1731 0
VCDI 0 12 21 133 463 2472 639 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2984 10030 2063 1754 158 18 0 0
OW 13 159 350 1324 283 21 2 0
VODI 10 80 126 3239 2431 65 13 0
ODI 0 51 124 1135 4867 217 22 0
CDI 0 31 20 240 2095 4891 875 0
VCDI 0 18 33 160 511 3966 1487 0


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