Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-07-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72354 17966 2192 1551 60 0 0 0
OW 8 0 67 943 155 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 806 552 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 151 856 118 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 186 1534 1343 517 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 62 2824 4750 56
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75330 15301 2160 1489 103 0 0 0
OW 7 1 104 1108 152 10 0 0
VODI 0 0 12 601 578 47 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 117 882 129 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 236 1310 2014 502 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 3737 3150 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73640 17093 2645 1411 96 0 0 0
OW 1 0 110 861 108 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 9 737 589 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 204 1074 150 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 92 1419 1663 1396 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 26 1347 3988 412
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75374 16458 2372 1087 90 0 0 0
OW 0 15 257 775 87 5 0 0
VODI 0 2 40 813 434 24 1 0
ODI 0 0 18 291 896 118 21 0
CDI 0 0 7 147 1448 2417 926 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 99 2994 1884 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75374 16452 2361 1183 78 0 0 0
OW 0 20 255 736 107 3 0 0
VODI 0 3 52 726 434 19 1 0
ODI 0 0 18 322 931 164 26 0
CDI 0 0 8 146 1403 2093 881 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 101 3279 1924 0

Date: 2015-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76776 16098 1644 1081 89 0 0 0
OW 0 17 261 742 143 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 43 595 592 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 17 259 925 109 9 0
CDI 0 0 6 156 1168 2532 2070 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 1673 2071 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76776 16107 1668 1107 86 0 0 0
OW 0 7 250 717 182 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 28 579 539 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 19 273 991 154 13 0
CDI 0 0 6 157 1115 2400 1932 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 1759 2205 0

Date: 2015-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77292 15906 1746 1004 40 0 0 0
OW 0 0 138 789 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 829 510 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 195 1670 103 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 21 479 2785 97 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 622 4732 62
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77292 15881 1655 1288 83 0 0 0
OW 0 18 163 690 218 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 34 441 576 31 1 0
ODI 0 0 36 216 951 172 52 0
CDI 0 0 5 203 938 2382 2322 15
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 925 2454 47

Date: 2015-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75448 17270 2358 1236 53 0 0 0
OW 0 0 59 842 122 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 638 672 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 187 1318 112 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 605 2523 618 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 3029 1926 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75448 17252 2234 1531 116 1 0 0
OW 0 13 127 577 231 6 0 0
VODI 0 5 34 411 573 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 23 231 904 229 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 172 975 4396 1460 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 1020 1082 0

Date: 2015-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77378 16372 1731 1215 78 0 0 0
OW 0 21 141 733 127 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 52 567 727 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 270 887 92 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 66 480 1466 2538 147
VCDI 0 0 0 1 63 631 2564 729
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77378 16191 1648 1423 108 0 0 0
OW 0 86 141 474 186 4 0 0
VODI 0 67 52 426 477 29 0 0
ODI 0 26 47 269 810 287 17 0
CDI 0 23 44 258 781 1793 4140 829
VCDI 0 0 1 2 0 85 951 47


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