Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-07-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65 6438 2033 1145 15 0 0 0
OW 3 7 146 874 80 4 0 0
VODI 9 1 4 1335 1020 47 0 0
ODI 12 4 4 351 2843 66 3 0
CDI 1 0 8 414 11192 8652 929 0
VCDI 0 0 34 182 392 3446 3360 747
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 203 6035 2441 1205 34 0 0 0
OW 0 31 248 978 252 19 0 0
VODI 0 15 60 1209 1121 75 1 0
ODI 0 44 35 495 2042 326 14 0
CDI 0 34 71 574 10048 11064 139 0
VCDI 0 0 18 75 785 3710 2078 387
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 483 7079 1997 1405 25 0 0 0
OW 0 2 117 1171 97 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 41 2007 791 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 39 632 6440 344 0 0
CDI 0 10 31 318 9018 8336 445 0
VCDI 0 23 72 63 837 1594 2409 8
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1047 6715 2441 1413 37 0 0 0
OW 1 35 128 1241 121 19 0 0
VODI 0 33 71 1463 1663 34 0 0
ODI 0 7 71 437 6511 1006 0 0
CDI 0 6 49 308 5308 8819 716 0
VCDI 0 41 74 88 1421 3651 891 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1047 6712 2465 1770 47 1 0 0
OW 1 37 109 1017 219 12 0 0
VODI 0 33 59 1265 1591 31 0 0
ODI 0 9 79 505 6481 1000 0 0
CDI 0 4 50 311 5281 8762 663 0
VCDI 0 42 72 82 1442 3723 944 0

Date: 2015-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1359 7170 2169 1252 109 1 0 0
OW 0 20 153 1554 285 14 0 0
VODI 0 15 92 1262 1963 64 0 0
ODI 0 0 50 508 6339 1250 0 0
CDI 0 44 73 264 5449 7518 399 0
VCDI 0 35 46 110 1124 4048 1127 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1359 7171 2191 1608 123 0 0 0
OW 0 17 135 1221 371 9 0 0
VODI 0 17 92 1175 1883 62 0 0
ODI 0 0 46 573 6317 1372 0 0
CDI 0 55 77 264 5487 7249 410 0
VCDI 0 24 42 109 1088 4203 1116 0

Date: 2015-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1127 8128 2273 1067 77 1 0 0
OW 0 20 289 1091 79 6 0 0
VODI 0 14 64 2195 958 35 0 0
ODI 0 80 60 470 11151 231 6 0
CDI 0 0 16 94 1486 5646 69 0
VCDI 0 0 5 59 302 1490 6593 684
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1127 8055 2151 1732 155 3 0 0
OW 0 42 248 1079 383 22 0 0
VODI 0 41 130 1209 1885 121 12 0
ODI 0 10 53 568 6583 1013 233 0
CDI 0 85 83 262 4708 4357 3120 62
VCDI 0 9 42 126 339 1893 3303 622

Date: 2015-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 794 8725 2687 1104 78 0 0 0
OW 0 26 257 1463 177 3 0 0
VODI 0 20 86 1901 1479 35 0 0
ODI 0 51 80 745 9970 208 0 0
CDI 0 1 34 161 1744 5219 144 0
VCDI 0 0 21 69 185 2627 5182 590
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 787 8609 2540 1825 143 1 0 0
OW 2 66 269 923 444 20 0 0
VODI 5 64 113 1306 2103 111 0 0
ODI 0 10 62 925 6518 1032 83 0
CDI 0 8 97 386 4221 5360 2561 0
VCDI 0 66 84 78 204 1568 2682 590

Date: 2015-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1215 9275 2272 1284 92 0 0 0
OW 0 61 385 1372 269 7 0 0
VODI 0 40 142 2132 1902 18 0 0
ODI 0 35 25 927 8763 164 0 0
CDI 0 29 23 244 2388 4866 39 0
VCDI 0 0 21 98 488 5948 1342 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1209 9133 2154 1865 131 2 0 0
OW 6 111 297 851 445 17 0 0
VODI 0 72 165 1437 2245 78 0 0
ODI 0 23 94 1328 6403 874 0 0
CDI 0 83 112 464 4378 7237 0 0
VCDI 0 18 46 112 300 2795 1381 0


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