Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-07-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72419 28343 5010 3150 111 0 0 0
OW 11 74 379 2431 382 11 0 0
VODI 9 40 98 3003 2328 126 0 0
ODI 12 6 50 866 5388 368 29 0
CDI 1 0 38 810 15054 11912 1695 0
VCDI 0 1 34 304 867 13412 16108 2168
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75631 25326 5306 3156 183 0 0 0
OW 7 87 634 2794 578 31 0 0
VODI 0 27 196 2836 2348 190 15 0
ODI 0 49 76 1161 4260 740 50 0
CDI 0 38 121 1129 14205 15647 787 0
VCDI 0 1 18 120 1280 12784 13255 1982
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74509 28236 5726 3141 143 0 0 0
OW 1 9 467 2838 325 19 0 0
VODI 0 0 119 4394 2217 83 1 0
ODI 0 0 43 1233 9511 601 6 0
CDI 0 10 31 512 13068 15354 2082 0
VCDI 0 23 73 71 944 8828 11982 448
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76423 27797 5921 2872 149 0 0 0
OW 1 92 719 2970 306 34 0 0
VODI 0 36 222 3876 3027 77 1 0
ODI 0 7 105 1192 9117 1232 28 0
CDI 0 6 60 607 10245 17101 1738 0
VCDI 0 42 74 137 1755 13786 5293 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76423 27794 5984 3465 170 1 0 0
OW 1 93 645 2646 412 22 0 0
VODI 0 37 222 3476 2898 65 1 0
ODI 0 9 115 1315 9167 1271 32 0
CDI 0 5 63 615 10167 17144 1685 0
VCDI 0 42 72 137 1785 13727 5342 0

Date: 2015-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78570 27816 4919 2703 214 1 0 0
OW 0 139 794 3613 457 14 0 0
VODI 0 28 293 3518 3165 80 0 0
ODI 0 0 91 1317 9008 1494 13 0
CDI 0 45 83 612 9358 17405 2773 0
VCDI 0 35 46 134 1289 12744 4277 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78570 27834 5060 3299 227 0 0 0
OW 0 115 655 3135 585 9 0 0
VODI 0 34 282 3293 2978 80 0 0
ODI 0 0 97 1415 9127 1649 17 0
CDI 0 56 90 619 9325 17291 2533 0
VCDI 0 24 42 136 1249 12709 4513 0

Date: 2015-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78858 28857 5555 2406 118 1 0 0
OW 1 48 921 3031 159 6 0 0
VODI 0 15 108 5462 1722 62 0 0
ODI 0 80 65 991 16481 521 6 0
CDI 0 1 17 197 3479 21308 289 0
VCDI 0 0 5 65 358 2924 12185 746
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78858 28622 5234 3668 243 3 0 0
OW 1 187 803 3079 619 23 0 0
VODI 0 87 335 3144 2874 180 13 0
ODI 0 10 159 1377 9601 1464 285 0
CDI 0 86 98 713 8350 13863 6194 77
VCDI 0 9 42 171 630 9289 5988 669

Date: 2015-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76657 31287 6850 2700 132 0 0 0
OW 0 47 880 3575 315 9 0 0
VODI 0 20 165 4563 2629 76 0 0
ODI 0 52 82 1366 14599 1284 134 0
CDI 0 1 36 240 4515 19336 1468 0
VCDI 0 0 22 74 276 5824 7244 590
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76650 30973 6236 3860 262 2 0 0
OW 2 237 1018 2558 707 32 0 0
VODI 5 106 437 3244 3062 174 0 0
ODI 0 16 152 1843 9742 1762 85 0
CDI 0 9 107 873 8186 17750 4362 0
VCDI 0 66 85 140 507 6809 4399 590

Date: 2015-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78977 31741 5500 2786 173 0 0 0
OW 0 177 1261 3240 435 8 0 0
VODI 0 41 396 4619 3394 152 0 0
ODI 0 35 55 1816 12655 2410 39 0
CDI 0 29 25 425 4157 15809 4215 147
VCDI 0 0 27 102 574 6841 4058 729
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78971 30834 5055 3904 271 2 0 0
OW 6 567 1007 2298 716 25 0 0
VODI 0 356 558 3227 3175 141 0 0
ODI 0 104 380 2307 9518 1916 17 0
CDI 0 144 212 1010 7123 17853 5209 829
VCDI 0 18 52 242 585 5283 3086 47


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