Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-07-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-06-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72834 16872 2112 1416 26 0 0 0
OW 15 0 87 859 245 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 17 487 784 67 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 102 947 386 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 66 698 2522 1431 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 562 3662 2840
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73570 16563 2081 1289 46 0 0 0
OW 12 12 155 827 283 11 0 0
VODI 0 0 41 425 850 97 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 75 868 498 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 132 623 1624 2171 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 432 4126 2232
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74719 13648 4375 1129 18 0 0 0
OW 9 2 387 531 125 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 303 580 433 26 1 0
ODI 0 0 365 164 573 156 14 0
CDI 0 0 490 359 345 1048 577 0
VCDI 0 0 328 1366 535 698 3780 2016
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75451 14963 2023 1544 54 0 0 0
OW 9 0 70 854 183 12 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 701 641 16 18 0
ODI 0 0 0 157 904 65 38 0
CDI 0 0 0 166 1676 1247 226 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 49 2127 5730 174
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75451 14963 2014 1550 46 0 0 0
OW 9 0 81 832 188 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 739 750 14 17 0
ODI 0 0 0 124 838 67 33 0
CDI 0 0 0 177 1633 1348 222 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 52 2029 5740 174

Date: 2015-07-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73706 16801 2097 1581 89 0 0 0
OW 7 0 88 1020 145 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 751 554 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 177 823 94 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 253 1986 1351 272 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 104 4253 2924 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73706 16801 2069 1574 72 0 0 0
OW 7 0 114 1033 170 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 10 754 610 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 183 774 109 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 238 1978 1366 255 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 97 4226 2941 0

Date: 2015-07-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75400 15498 2180 1345 73 0 0 0
OW 6 0 153 860 87 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 876 497 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 216 1251 136 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 82 923 3260 224 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1910 4084 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75400 15495 2078 1442 115 0 0 0
OW 6 3 234 942 239 26 0 0
VODI 0 0 18 556 522 79 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 184 721 168 24 0
CDI 0 0 2 255 1208 2241 742 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 26 2826 3542 0

Date: 2015-07-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72805 17782 3015 1436 88 4 0 0
OW 0 0 152 866 103 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 22 743 548 19 6 0
ODI 0 0 8 232 1007 124 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 109 1586 1327 1412 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 86 2346 3248 3
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72799 17735 2803 1683 126 14 0 0
OW 6 41 283 604 241 9 6 0
VODI 0 6 74 534 476 27 9 0
ODI 0 0 18 274 656 131 8 0
CDI 0 0 19 291 1883 1272 1548 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 36 2376 3109 3

Date: 2015-07-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76507 16104 1726 1083 100 0 0 0
OW 0 21 259 759 134 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 36 628 578 25 0 0
ODI 0 3 17 249 882 176 0 0
CDI 0 1 9 167 1072 2888 1466 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 1699 2472 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76502 15925 1513 1394 211 0 0 0
OW 5 169 269 373 211 5 0 0
VODI 0 23 223 407 373 67 0 0
ODI 0 13 11 365 565 172 0 0
CDI 0 10 31 346 1412 2806 2149 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 22 1738 1789 0


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