Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-07-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-06-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 41 3505 654 305 11 1 0 0
OW 0 0 91 316 155 11 2 0
VODI 0 0 9 330 796 202 16 0
ODI 0 0 6 153 1658 551 29 0
CDI 0 0 22 253 1459 3140 1381 0
VCDI 0 0 0 118 352 1996 9780 4739
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3732 617 235 11 2 0 0
OW 0 6 186 304 236 19 0 0
VODI 0 5 73 512 817 159 0 0
ODI 0 8 49 221 1543 354 20 0
CDI 0 0 66 315 1208 1777 2806 262
VCDI 0 0 15 208 651 2849 5469 7347
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 27 3857 786 330 9 0 0 0
OW 0 2 89 453 93 2 0 0
VODI 0 1 46 695 642 25 0 0
ODI 0 2 5 319 2228 207 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 148 1368 2832 232 0
VCDI 0 0 1 0 160 6060 8558 2905
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3933 793 392 24 0 0 0
OW 0 23 149 570 108 2 0 0
VODI 0 2 90 879 699 72 0 0
ODI 0 0 53 326 1835 173 11 0
CDI 0 0 17 206 2060 1834 451 0
VCDI 0 0 1 72 518 5012 9822 1955
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3935 817 461 38 0 0 0
OW 0 20 129 554 131 2 0 0
VODI 0 3 87 812 754 61 0 0
ODI 0 0 54 354 1629 196 16 0
CDI 0 0 15 194 2119 1691 378 0
VCDI 0 0 1 70 573 5143 9890 1955

Date: 2015-07-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3953 781 498 44 0 0 0
OW 0 169 179 595 185 4 0 0
VODI 0 122 118 797 707 84 0 0
ODI 0 7 48 477 1506 204 5 0
CDI 0 5 50 264 2697 2109 64 0
VCDI 0 1 0 75 575 6655 7088 2016
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3991 844 620 85 0 0 0
OW 0 146 123 547 204 7 0 0
VODI 0 105 104 773 730 76 0 0
ODI 0 10 60 420 1323 222 16 0
CDI 0 4 45 201 2826 1769 55 0
VCDI 0 1 0 145 546 6982 7086 2016

Date: 2015-07-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1 4547 825 224 17 0 0 0
OW 0 39 385 679 98 4 1 0
VODI 0 20 85 1874 500 17 5 0
ODI 0 0 15 387 2194 86 11 0
CDI 0 0 1 78 2197 5386 210 0
VCDI 0 1 0 12 73 3543 8116 451
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1 4336 759 392 74 0 0 0
OW 0 167 228 638 152 3 0 0
VODI 0 77 200 1043 449 52 23 0
ODI 0 22 57 722 991 204 76 0
CDI 0 4 67 431 3076 2394 341 0
VCDI 0 1 0 28 337 6383 7903 451

Date: 2015-07-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115 4558 932 347 16 0 0 0
OW 0 25 320 809 147 4 0 0
VODI 0 5 91 1500 1024 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 457 1849 96 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 111 3003 5743 88 0
VCDI 0 0 1 18 241 7805 2742 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115 4448 776 417 105 0 0 0
OW 0 103 282 637 167 9 0 0
VODI 0 33 197 1019 608 66 15 0
ODI 0 4 30 566 1134 148 28 0
CDI 0 0 66 558 3588 3145 221 0
VCDI 0 0 1 45 678 10304 2569 0

Date: 2015-07-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100 4801 995 406 8 0 0 0
OW 0 105 326 1108 62 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 136 1782 657 2 0 0
ODI 0 2 27 560 1614 104 0 0
CDI 0 1 21 178 3314 6584 115 0
VCDI 0 0 0 52 237 6247 2525 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100 4749 778 651 54 0 0 0
OW 0 101 394 776 91 3 0 0
VODI 0 39 204 990 470 61 0 0
ODI 0 11 36 668 944 97 0 0
CDI 0 22 93 941 3902 3768 174 0
VCDI 0 0 0 60 431 9008 2466 0


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