Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-07-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-06-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72875 25221 4573 3081 129 1 0 0
OW 15 18 379 1807 513 19 2 0
VODI 0 0 98 1917 2322 293 16 0
ODI 0 1 7 510 4670 1091 45 0
CDI 0 12 22 506 11591 9851 3374 0
VCDI 0 14 9 426 3665 8295 20612 9068
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73972 25117 4449 2880 106 2 0 0
OW 22 43 618 1862 660 38 0 0
VODI 0 5 180 2021 2670 282 0 0
ODI 0 8 58 611 4127 968 36 0
CDI 0 4 83 768 12998 8457 5576 262
VCDI 0 16 91 552 3473 8961 14157 10915
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75171 20164 9447 3049 70 0 0 0
OW 29 38 767 1648 231 2 0 0
VODI 14 21 616 2781 1433 51 1 0
ODI 27 18 904 1387 4981 363 14 0
CDI 44 164 975 4224 13577 8382 884 0
VCDI 5 406 1230 3691 1609 9254 14330 5046
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75762 24584 5157 3101 111 0 0 0
OW 9 29 341 2224 408 18 0 0
VODI 0 2 99 2858 2331 143 18 0
ODI 0 0 65 822 5206 726 87 0
CDI 0 0 24 706 13607 10471 3903 0
VCDI 0 0 11 330 1078 9778 20524 2515
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75762 24585 5190 3286 144 0 0 0
OW 9 27 314 2101 558 14 0 0
VODI 0 3 94 2813 2447 141 17 0
ODI 0 0 65 823 4806 753 181 0
CDI 0 0 22 691 13649 10467 3698 0
VCDI 0 0 12 327 1137 9761 20636 2515

Date: 2015-07-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73847 27016 5065 3257 165 0 0 0
OW 12 182 513 2466 535 33 3 0
VODI 10 122 158 2788 2326 155 11 0
ODI 10 7 63 1003 4794 544 19 0
CDI 0 5 98 1112 16253 12832 445 0
VCDI 0 1 29 185 1152 14821 12511 2500
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73849 27062 5142 3421 299 0 0 0
OW 11 151 456 2392 612 38 4 0
VODI 6 105 133 2767 2321 137 9 0
ODI 13 10 73 967 4641 641 30 0
CDI 0 4 97 1000 16242 12272 390 0
VCDI 0 1 25 264 1110 15297 12556 2500

Date: 2015-07-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76040 26511 5196 2701 105 0 0 0
OW 6 92 743 2570 243 20 1 0
VODI 0 36 119 4637 1793 82 5 0
ODI 0 8 38 1112 9728 495 12 0
CDI 0 244 32 299 10782 19681 709 0
VCDI 0 1 5 49 771 7531 14173 478
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76040 26105 4960 3210 223 4 0 0
OW 6 271 688 2567 581 43 0 0
VODI 0 200 274 2865 1913 177 23 0
ODI 0 61 99 1492 3848 762 101 0
CDI 0 244 107 1161 15521 13355 1488 0
VCDI 0 11 5 73 1336 13468 13288 478

Date: 2015-07-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74015 28947 6272 3097 123 4 0 0
OW 1 35 660 2814 347 22 0 0
VODI 0 11 201 3968 2764 80 6 0
ODI 0 0 90 1169 9431 926 17 0
CDI 0 1 40 453 11713 15851 1844 0
VCDI 0 41 89 124 1578 13579 6732 3
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74007 28740 5654 3624 271 19 0 0
OW 9 184 877 2235 652 28 6 0
VODI 0 50 384 2800 2065 120 24 0
ODI 0 19 140 1447 4217 548 36 0
CDI 0 7 216 1333 16495 13361 2168 0
VCDI 0 35 81 186 2256 16386 6365 3

Date: 2015-07-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77590 28074 5030 2803 167 3 0 0
OW 0 150 746 3273 372 11 0 0
VODI 0 51 271 3762 3064 61 0 0
ODI 0 6 100 1219 8946 1487 0 0
CDI 0 13 124 590 8992 18756 1871 0
VCDI 0 3 69 171 1397 11341 6535 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77585 27696 4346 3699 379 15 0 0
OW 5 337 965 2152 561 21 0 0
VODI 0 151 530 2391 1900 156 0 0
ODI 0 66 122 1555 4109 782 0 0
CDI 0 47 329 1832 14202 17517 3568 0
VCDI 0 0 48 189 1787 13168 4838 0


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