Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-06-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 29 4032 1236 1357 317 4 3 0
OW 2 143 169 508 219 12 5 0
VODI 0 84 127 460 343 69 8 0
ODI 0 100 12 549 872 528 39 0
CDI 0 40 12 289 3099 2966 956 11
VCDI 0 0 24 255 7422 6310 5007 8248
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 589 3605 1244 1435 356 5 0 0
OW 20 198 148 408 207 22 0 0
VODI 0 158 127 483 383 96 0 0
ODI 0 15 21 746 918 938 2 0
CDI 0 7 4 363 3352 2470 272 0
VCDI 0 0 0 380 6884 7731 8684 3595
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 376 4529 1174 1458 276 0 0 0
OW 6 114 136 440 79 10 0 0
VODI 0 210 24 858 320 42 0 0
ODI 0 141 5 455 1526 445 1 0
CDI 0 30 2 141 4288 6760 324 0
VCDI 0 25 5 244 4176 8814 6286 2146
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 287 4405 1776 1372 169 0 0 0
OW 18 15 153 610 85 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 38 1071 621 18 0 0
ODI 0 49 6 371 1956 148 9 0
CDI 0 6 10 204 7884 4653 975 0
VCDI 0 0 16 347 2754 7691 6722 1406
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 287 4405 1733 1424 178 0 0 0
OW 18 16 185 616 121 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 47 1033 678 11 0 0
ODI 0 47 8 369 1857 147 11 0
CDI 0 1 9 188 7931 4729 973 0
VCDI 0 0 17 345 2704 7623 6722 1406

Date: 2015-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 4782 1848 1474 120 1 0 0
OW 0 24 213 682 154 16 0 0
VODI 0 1 52 1069 861 132 0 0
ODI 0 3 4 306 1566 415 0 0
CDI 0 0 16 329 10200 4309 468 0
VCDI 0 0 21 306 3385 6166 5306 1637
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 4781 1847 1515 158 0 0 0
OW 0 25 194 715 193 27 0 0
VODI 0 1 72 997 825 176 0 0
ODI 0 3 4 348 1651 362 0 0
CDI 0 0 13 283 10301 4303 414 0
VCDI 0 0 24 308 3158 6171 5360 1637

Date: 2015-06-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 429 5115 2037 1018 31 0 0 0
OW 9 5 289 636 56 2 0 0
VODI 0 6 17 1511 494 15 0 0
ODI 0 13 2 223 3651 179 0 0
CDI 0 3 4 264 10526 9381 140 0
VCDI 0 0 57 219 1321 3443 4298 472
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 429 5077 1939 1180 94 0 0 0
OW 9 38 309 740 286 12 0 0
VODI 0 0 93 995 841 42 0 0
ODI 0 3 3 378 1696 240 0 0
CDI 0 10 5 289 10841 6953 579 0
VCDI 0 14 57 289 2321 5773 3859 472

Date: 2015-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109 5757 2260 1090 97 0 0 0
OW 0 15 159 708 156 6 0 0
VODI 0 17 16 1257 874 51 0 0
ODI 0 4 23 365 2641 405 0 0
CDI 0 1 3 349 9330 8120 2772 0
VCDI 0 21 37 265 746 3020 4737 455
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109 5709 2100 1192 229 16 0 0
OW 0 55 233 700 503 18 0 0
VODI 0 25 84 857 636 109 0 0
ODI 0 4 11 552 1537 334 0 0
CDI 0 1 33 445 9169 7196 1640 0
VCDI 0 21 37 288 1770 3929 5869 455

Date: 2015-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65 6438 2033 1145 15 0 0 0
OW 3 7 146 874 80 4 0 0
VODI 9 1 4 1335 1020 47 0 0
ODI 12 4 4 351 2843 66 3 0
CDI 1 0 8 414 11192 8652 929 0
VCDI 0 0 34 182 392 3446 3360 747
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65 6374 1942 1320 208 2 0 0
OW 0 55 172 891 304 5 0 0
VODI 0 8 68 924 716 36 0 0
ODI 2 5 5 510 1923 227 1 0
CDI 23 8 0 381 9783 6611 283 0
VCDI 0 0 42 275 2608 5334 4008 747


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