Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-06-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72877 22922 4076 2985 364 4 3 0
OW 24 162 502 1691 482 17 5 0
VODI 0 101 225 1475 1371 142 9 0
ODI 0 136 40 1095 2275 951 139 0
CDI 0 115 15 895 6548 5104 3427 11
VCDI 0 1 24 406 9767 11366 19888 15408
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73535 22395 4435 3085 419 5 0 0
OW 39 221 565 1410 634 25 0 0
VODI 0 158 267 1352 1467 245 0 0
ODI 0 15 43 1135 2645 1608 32 0
CDI 0 7 7 616 6257 7326 2566 0
VCDI 0 0 0 455 7655 12588 19443 14393
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73693 23153 4838 3140 333 0 0 0
OW 24 115 255 1559 405 37 0 0
VODI 0 235 34 1861 1661 175 6 0
ODI 0 146 5 700 4029 976 33 0
CDI 0 30 2 377 7093 11810 1729 0
VCDI 0 26 5 266 4529 13548 18822 11398
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73066 24271 4912 3179 207 1 0 0
OW 34 15 269 1780 468 21 0 0
VODI 0 21 53 1979 2120 252 2 0
ODI 0 49 6 626 4627 821 58 0
CDI 0 6 11 519 10540 10088 3072 0
VCDI 0 0 16 408 3165 11427 20449 8510
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73066 24271 4862 3386 260 3 0 0
OW 34 16 301 1623 457 19 0 0
VODI 0 27 69 1950 2204 219 2 0
ODI 0 47 8 623 4429 847 59 0
CDI 0 1 10 494 10649 10237 3021 0
VCDI 0 0 17 415 3128 11285 20499 8510

Date: 2015-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72871 25768 4352 3007 158 1 0 0
OW 10 32 519 1836 578 32 0 0
VODI 0 1 127 1977 2547 342 0 0
ODI 0 10 36 552 4191 1297 17 0
CDI 0 0 71 666 11813 8832 4871 82
VCDI 0 0 49 500 4009 9874 16932 9088
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72871 25760 4368 3107 240 2 0 0
OW 10 40 472 1799 562 53 0 0
VODI 0 1 151 1913 2511 412 0 0
ODI 0 10 46 604 4200 1203 25 0
CDI 0 0 66 626 12020 8735 4812 84
VCDI 0 0 51 489 3763 9973 16983 9086

Date: 2015-06-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75223 24751 4583 2400 50 0 0 0
OW 20 19 599 1839 263 13 0 0
VODI 0 6 67 2876 1601 83 0 0
ODI 0 13 22 619 7343 534 9 0
CDI 0 3 4 511 12333 13981 520 0
VCDI 0 0 57 221 1471 5640 19700 9674
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75224 24686 4252 2827 212 22 0 0
OW 19 65 636 1753 812 105 17 0
VODI 0 8 211 1993 2409 333 38 0
ODI 0 8 83 670 4173 892 62 0
CDI 0 11 85 751 12545 10280 5583 292
VCDI 0 14 65 472 2910 8619 14529 9382

Date: 2015-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74490 25750 5176 2843 148 0 0 0
OW 9 23 373 1989 417 16 0 0
VODI 0 105 102 2727 2133 124 15 0
ODI 0 117 48 952 5265 731 59 0
CDI 0 1 4 686 12454 11244 3986 0
VCDI 0 21 38 280 1178 12253 18655 2636
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74490 25639 4680 3047 414 20 0 0
OW 9 99 581 1991 1059 97 10 0
VODI 0 117 216 2014 2113 310 33 0
ODI 0 138 83 996 3812 838 129 0
CDI 0 3 115 933 11918 13749 3345 0
VCDI 0 21 66 496 2279 9354 19198 2636

Date: 2015-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72419 28343 5010 3150 111 0 0 0
OW 11 74 379 2431 382 11 0 0
VODI 9 40 98 3003 2328 126 0 0
ODI 12 6 50 866 5388 368 29 0
CDI 1 0 38 810 15054 11912 1695 0
VCDI 0 1 34 304 867 13412 16108 2168
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72419 28176 4679 3689 549 15 0 0
OW 8 166 504 2250 944 72 0 0
VODI 0 72 171 2221 1954 215 7 0
ODI 2 33 90 964 4495 675 25 0
CDI 23 16 110 957 12868 12186 3147 0
VCDI 0 1 55 483 3320 12666 14653 2168


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