Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-06-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-06-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70156 17456 2090 1104 127 1 0 0
OW 41 39 335 606 210 10 0 0
VODI 0 11 108 598 521 49 7 0
ODI 0 0 42 247 705 227 72 0
CDI 0 0 26 128 556 1360 1455 0
VCDI 0 0 0 69 183 791 4948 4822
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70252 17805 1805 1186 257 3 0 0
OW 34 75 310 488 274 18 9 0
VODI 0 36 119 520 570 61 37 0
ODI 0 4 54 226 612 247 135 0
CDI 0 0 33 143 461 1408 1966 0
VCDI 0 0 3 67 226 2908 5766 982
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71132 17807 1862 945 99 0 0 0
OW 35 4 189 736 89 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 42 641 489 20 1 0
ODI 0 0 16 172 874 144 33 0
CDI 0 0 5 70 432 1318 990 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 38 669 7462 2786
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71353 17566 1876 1268 25 0 0 0
OW 23 14 178 851 89 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 75 588 433 29 3 0
ODI 0 0 19 159 785 154 25 0
CDI 0 0 3 71 487 1354 1731 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 17 400 6481 3036
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71353 17566 1882 1426 31 0 0 0
OW 23 14 169 732 115 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 79 547 404 29 5 0
ODI 0 0 18 160 728 151 29 0
CDI 0 0 3 69 539 1353 1845 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 19 402 6361 3036

Date: 2015-06-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74022 15207 1776 1324 28 0 0 0
OW 20 19 297 676 175 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 102 536 554 48 0 0
ODI 0 0 19 202 618 324 3 0
CDI 0 0 2 68 439 1836 1629 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 264 4174 4726
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74022 15211 1816 1477 65 0 0 0
OW 20 15 272 533 164 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 90 530 544 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 14 204 579 331 5 0
CDI 0 0 4 59 451 1912 1705 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 22 204 4096 4727

Date: 2015-06-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71304 17668 2609 1084 22 0 0 0
OW 19 1 147 786 127 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 652 625 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 85 1027 187 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 535 2843 243 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 408 4394 4296
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71305 17637 2470 1364 120 0 0 0
OW 18 32 181 484 263 12 0 0
VODI 0 0 92 511 648 79 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 197 627 425 27 0
CDI 0 0 3 56 678 2658 1007 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 281 3603 4295

Date: 2015-06-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73878 15864 1961 1355 27 0 0 0
OW 16 0 82 801 186 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 10 568 655 18 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 55 1068 165 24 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 701 2442 1028 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 6 870 3900 3378
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73878 15829 1745 1449 109 7 0 0
OW 16 34 228 549 253 11 7 0
VODI 0 1 66 593 649 47 17 0
ODI 0 0 13 154 896 248 56 0
CDI 0 0 1 62 721 2644 2102 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 15 544 2775 3378

Date: 2015-06-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72834 16872 2112 1416 26 0 0 0
OW 15 0 87 859 245 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 17 487 784 67 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 102 947 386 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 66 698 2522 1431 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 562 3662 2840
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72834 16812 1880 1494 75 5 0 0
OW 15 60 226 654 229 25 0 0
VODI 0 0 101 519 739 72 7 0
ODI 0 0 9 204 905 364 46 0
CDI 0 0 0 59 794 2855 2833 65
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 220 2222 2775


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