Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-06-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-06-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2747 1426 729 173 0 0 0
OW 0 70 159 605 182 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 106 493 396 12 1 0
ODI 0 0 51 424 441 154 5 0
CDI 0 0 7 333 1359 2689 1389 4
VCDI 0 28 5 144 1175 5126 15486 9921
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2853 1232 869 250 0 0 0
OW 0 142 190 456 269 6 0 0
VODI 0 65 195 514 345 20 6 0
ODI 0 50 90 480 560 112 15 0
CDI 0 114 13 493 2990 3285 614 13
VCDI 0 0 1 188 2708 9487 7022 10219
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3565 1507 935 257 1 2 0
OW 0 28 263 596 183 2 6 0
VODI 0 1 54 710 460 40 7 0
ODI 0 12 3 356 1219 130 18 0
CDI 0 8 0 296 3458 4186 229 0
VCDI 0 0 0 196 4192 8398 9807 4741
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3798 1403 1304 307 2 5 0
OW 0 57 168 591 239 2 6 0
VODI 0 0 78 558 389 40 27 0
ODI 0 0 7 428 1098 315 54 0
CDI 0 0 0 263 2852 3870 775 3
VCDI 0 0 0 302 5029 6887 7517 7492
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3818 1431 1384 398 2 5 0
OW 0 37 151 509 193 12 5 0
VODI 0 0 68 550 371 42 24 0
ODI 0 0 6 440 1123 323 42 0
CDI 0 0 0 262 2770 3974 775 4
VCDI 0 0 0 301 5059 6763 7533 7491

Date: 2015-06-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 523 3682 1135 1433 343 5 2 0
OW 20 153 146 472 209 15 4 0
VODI 0 123 128 471 331 109 9 0
ODI 0 152 17 613 773 861 14 0
CDI 0 158 2 347 2921 2930 426 0
VCDI 0 0 0 409 8140 5136 6517 7137
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 523 3722 1155 1477 390 22 2 0
OW 20 117 145 408 184 24 4 0
VODI 0 104 105 459 311 114 8 0
ODI 0 150 20 631 848 615 16 0
CDI 0 175 3 361 3069 3301 509 0
VCDI 0 0 0 409 7915 4980 6433 7137

Date: 2015-06-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 393 4208 1315 1425 210 4 0 0
OW 20 7 174 548 85 8 0 0
VODI 0 13 23 939 359 26 0 0
ODI 0 5 3 523 2009 116 3 0
CDI 0 15 1 160 4917 4617 290 0
VCDI 0 0 0 330 4816 7417 7132 3755
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 393 4053 1142 1502 318 44 0 0
OW 20 101 167 422 175 39 0 0
VODI 0 42 151 514 471 86 0 0
ODI 0 26 51 706 1098 546 9 0
CDI 0 26 5 375 3031 2988 483 0
VCDI 0 0 0 406 7303 8485 6933 3755

Date: 2015-06-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 411 4349 1593 1412 164 0 0 0
OW 19 2 183 544 97 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 40 1024 486 8 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 529 1913 142 3 0
CDI 0 7 8 184 6230 5874 345 0
VCDI 0 0 0 270 4636 7843 5559 1986
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 411 4140 1345 1431 278 2 0 0
OW 19 165 173 370 217 6 0 0
VODI 0 45 217 574 564 36 0 0
ODI 0 1 82 847 1274 367 1 0
CDI 0 8 10 412 3992 2966 545 0
VCDI 0 0 0 329 7201 10491 5361 1986

Date: 2015-06-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 4844 1807 1360 92 0 0 0
OW 0 18 201 632 113 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 72 1100 742 24 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 255 2065 154 1 0
CDI 0 12 0 187 9434 4189 562 0
VCDI 0 14 9 308 3269 5737 7170 1489
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 4657 1560 1392 142 7 0 0
OW 0 165 221 359 242 10 0 0
VODI 0 40 201 692 742 71 0 0
ODI 0 0 97 669 1621 404 1 0
CDI 0 7 2 360 5720 3673 1313 0
VCDI 0 20 9 370 7248 5943 6419 1489


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