Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-06-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-06-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69512 17291 2115 1233 102 14 0 0
OW 44 6 221 715 251 13 0 0
VODI 0 7 74 554 401 26 0 0
ODI 0 5 22 269 757 168 3 0
CDI 0 0 24 115 895 2144 958 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 95 1820 8411 814
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68454 17995 2196 1479 168 29 0 0
OW 42 14 152 688 297 26 0 0
VODI 0 0 94 424 439 93 2 0
ODI 0 0 22 229 852 320 54 0
CDI 0 0 19 88 769 2106 1650 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 50 274 5213 4852
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70059 16470 2352 1544 81 16 0 0
OW 44 0 89 760 206 28 0 0
VODI 0 0 16 635 512 44 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 129 1061 254 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 85 689 1857 858 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 100 1000 8040 2162
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69532 17664 2260 1209 117 1 0 0
OW 37 27 242 640 206 16 0 0
VODI 0 5 65 585 586 60 9 0
ODI 0 0 29 167 835 232 60 0
CDI 0 0 7 98 659 1723 1109 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 45 169 5676 5028
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69532 17666 2300 1309 158 2 0 0
OW 37 25 203 567 188 23 0 0
VODI 0 5 61 547 559 57 11 0
ODI 0 0 32 176 823 222 59 0
CDI 0 0 7 100 675 1746 1066 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 45 151 5718 5028

Date: 2015-06-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70803 17264 1787 1115 159 2 0 0
OW 41 61 349 559 208 17 5 0
VODI 0 16 135 558 526 41 35 0
ODI 0 0 45 256 635 235 113 0
CDI 0 0 27 128 493 1226 1806 0
VCDI 0 0 2 62 155 1511 4894 3831
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70803 17270 1855 1241 216 4 0 0
OW 41 52 303 444 196 15 7 0
VODI 0 19 108 567 488 56 36 0
ODI 0 0 46 246 620 215 102 0
CDI 0 0 32 119 521 1252 1835 0
VCDI 0 0 1 61 135 1490 4873 3831

Date: 2015-06-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70041 18136 2054 1054 116 2 0 0
OW 33 38 294 707 180 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 25 723 427 14 9 0
ODI 0 0 7 131 1057 149 14 0
CDI 0 0 3 52 486 1801 338 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 25 1183 8349 1646
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70041 18064 1919 1365 293 6 4 0
OW 33 66 245 469 216 16 14 0
VODI 0 37 123 456 546 84 36 0
ODI 0 7 49 232 586 346 132 0
CDI 0 0 41 104 553 1548 2068 2
VCDI 0 0 6 42 97 1154 6456 1644

Date: 2015-06-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69615 19153 2131 1047 24 0 0 0
OW 29 25 205 823 54 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 61 726 369 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 26 166 836 102 6 0
CDI 0 0 7 77 540 1540 983 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 21 338 8017 2166
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69615 19010 2007 1432 109 7 0 0
OW 29 81 219 540 121 33 17 0
VODI 0 58 98 577 418 59 53 0
ODI 0 26 40 176 665 309 102 0
CDI 0 5 59 87 423 1237 2214 40
VCDI 0 0 7 33 108 340 6620 2126

Date: 2015-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72848 16299 1710 1336 19 0 0 0
OW 22 19 222 759 126 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 81 549 542 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 25 191 685 222 13 0
CDI 0 0 2 74 709 1452 1587 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 26 396 6208 2958
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72847 16169 1626 1670 176 39 7 0
OW 23 68 225 496 168 27 40 0
VODI 0 59 90 478 476 115 64 0
ODI 0 22 44 148 679 340 137 0
CDI 0 0 55 102 546 1206 2313 35
VCDI 0 0 0 18 62 360 5247 2923


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