Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-06-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-06-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2166 1314 832 30 0 0 0
OW 0 84 155 459 93 17 3 0
VODI 0 31 96 427 277 19 45 0
ODI 0 9 47 352 608 88 72 0
CDI 0 0 38 382 740 1119 811 0
VCDI 0 0 0 135 306 1731 17609 15771
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2419 1141 769 46 0 0 0
OW 0 120 165 405 169 2 0 0
VODI 0 46 131 396 344 60 7 0
ODI 0 28 67 391 480 172 21 0
CDI 0 2 66 457 694 1035 1204 0
VCDI 0 0 0 122 350 4242 14496 15819
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2700 1327 819 65 0 0 0
OW 0 43 129 522 146 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 79 560 406 3 0 0
ODI 0 5 45 293 535 80 12 0
CDI 0 10 1 288 948 1913 829 0
VCDI 0 0 0 92 487 6133 18120 9260
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2686 1429 794 113 0 0 0
OW 0 55 141 568 164 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 92 526 404 5 1 0
ODI 0 0 33 383 460 139 7 0
CDI 0 0 1 317 1275 2326 1407 0
VCDI 0 16 17 69 819 6473 16287 8844
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2681 1448 923 130 0 0 0
OW 0 52 118 474 142 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 84 491 440 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 46 364 468 141 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 328 1193 2148 1652 0
VCDI 0 16 17 77 862 6650 16044 8844

Date: 2015-06-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2713 1225 904 245 0 0 0
OW 0 96 182 508 262 1 0 0
VODI 0 39 134 479 409 44 2 0
ODI 0 0 59 442 402 223 13 0
CDI 0 0 8 316 1437 2773 2083 6
VCDI 0 0 0 244 1260 6896 9098 13363
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2724 1263 996 291 0 0 0
OW 0 89 156 450 258 4 0 0
VODI 0 35 125 446 370 51 0 0
ODI 0 0 60 417 406 239 17 0
CDI 0 0 4 334 1411 2852 2114 6
VCDI 0 0 0 250 1279 6791 9065 13363

Date: 2015-06-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3414 1301 738 185 1 0 0
OW 0 53 320 683 128 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 40 909 462 3 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 384 1360 23 4 0
CDI 0 0 1 355 4246 3979 50 17
VCDI 0 0 0 114 3594 7202 8404 7891
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3292 1165 911 239 1 0 0
OW 0 142 215 408 209 5 2 0
VODI 0 33 221 553 290 19 3 0
ODI 0 0 60 596 631 93 11 0
CDI 0 0 1 550 3996 2348 724 46
VCDI 0 0 0 165 4610 8745 7720 7862

Date: 2015-06-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8 3750 1368 1257 230 1 6 0
OW 0 37 180 614 233 1 4 0
VODI 0 13 53 654 326 90 12 0
ODI 0 10 5 379 1159 280 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 241 3236 3632 631 1
VCDI 0 0 0 316 5580 6773 6161 8604
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8 3600 1140 1127 241 1 9 0
OW 0 153 215 463 151 0 8 0
VODI 0 52 168 605 252 26 12 0
ODI 0 4 83 464 632 196 22 0
CDI 0 1 0 444 3277 2939 1188 66
VCDI 0 0 0 358 6211 7615 5596 8539

Date: 2015-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 29 4032 1236 1357 317 4 3 0
OW 2 143 169 508 219 12 5 0
VODI 0 84 127 460 343 69 8 0
ODI 0 100 12 549 872 528 39 0
CDI 0 40 12 289 3099 2966 956 11
VCDI 0 0 24 255 7422 6310 5007 8248
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 29 3857 1053 1246 290 5 7 0
OW 2 224 188 400 115 12 6 0
VODI 0 134 210 488 243 77 24 0
ODI 0 96 74 458 523 150 197 0
CDI 0 88 31 545 2956 3129 875 88
VCDI 0 0 24 281 8145 6516 4909 8171


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