Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-06-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-06-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69512 21013 3994 2280 132 14 0 0
OW 44 95 534 1515 384 30 3 0
VODI 0 38 202 1446 949 51 55 0
ODI 0 14 76 775 1728 304 101 0
CDI 0 0 83 757 2573 4279 2276 0
VCDI 0 0 0 172 638 7731 37378 25872
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68454 21955 3852 2660 261 29 0 0
OW 42 146 420 1419 621 33 0 0
VODI 0 50 260 1104 1174 201 9 0
ODI 0 28 91 826 1699 655 138 0
CDI 0 2 131 996 2384 4493 3365 0
VCDI 0 2 9 660 833 7000 30522 30524
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70059 20703 4462 2858 161 16 0 0
OW 44 53 259 1769 431 32 0 0
VODI 0 22 126 1608 1255 71 0 0
ODI 0 6 61 595 2229 516 63 0
CDI 0 10 3 743 2554 5307 2435 6
VCDI 0 0 0 168 789 8237 39242 20155
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69532 22436 4375 2299 236 1 0 0
OW 37 93 538 1777 394 16 0 0
VODI 0 28 212 1477 1158 96 28 0
ODI 0 0 75 854 1688 577 123 0
CDI 0 0 8 529 3043 5054 3767 1
VCDI 0 16 17 105 1298 9134 35480 20546
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69532 22434 4421 2555 294 2 0 0
OW 37 88 486 1456 349 23 0 0
VODI 0 35 206 1507 1168 95 31 0
ODI 0 0 88 848 1690 595 131 0
CDI 0 0 7 557 2953 4877 3982 1
VCDI 0 16 17 118 1363 9286 35254 20546

Date: 2015-06-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70803 21924 3924 2539 414 2 0 0
OW 41 174 671 1548 517 18 5 0
VODI 0 65 319 1357 1180 116 60 0
ODI 0 0 109 981 1462 624 189 0
CDI 0 0 36 656 3250 4967 5004 6
VCDI 0 0 2 407 1911 11868 23414 26485
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70803 21951 4015 2723 521 4 0 0
OW 41 151 621 1361 491 19 9 0
VODI 0 61 276 1371 1091 153 73 0
ODI 0 0 112 950 1466 639 166 0
CDI 0 0 36 699 3219 5048 5258 6
VCDI 0 0 1 384 1946 11732 23166 26485

Date: 2015-06-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70041 23795 4301 2203 314 3 0 0
OW 33 106 729 1876 321 8 0 0
VODI 0 0 71 2136 1171 23 13 0
ODI 0 0 7 690 3233 399 26 0
CDI 0 0 4 548 5753 8111 489 17
VCDI 0 1 0 127 3881 13275 30414 12929
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70041 23590 3872 2740 555 7 4 0
OW 33 234 653 1257 477 21 19 0
VODI 0 70 428 1297 1124 173 49 0
ODI 0 7 111 1132 1637 633 168 0
CDI 0 0 42 915 5715 5497 4152 48
VCDI 0 1 6 239 5165 15488 26550 12898

Date: 2015-06-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69623 25330 4634 2675 265 1 6 0
OW 29 63 498 1827 338 1 4 0
VODI 0 15 120 1931 981 117 25 0
ODI 0 10 31 776 2788 516 78 0
CDI 0 0 7 481 5707 6598 2306 1
VCDI 0 1 0 332 6083 10980 26800 15070
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69623 24982 4087 2960 371 8 9 0
OW 29 290 614 1297 350 34 31 0
VODI 0 110 386 1485 889 99 80 0
ODI 0 30 137 1023 1801 657 167 0
CDI 0 6 59 864 5739 5668 5545 106
VCDI 0 1 7 393 7012 11747 23387 14965

Date: 2015-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72877 22922 4076 2985 364 4 3 0
OW 24 162 502 1691 482 17 5 0
VODI 0 101 225 1475 1371 142 9 0
ODI 0 136 40 1095 2275 951 139 0
CDI 0 115 15 895 6548 5104 3427 11
VCDI 0 1 24 406 9767 11366 19888 15408
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72876 22507 3622 3319 496 48 14 0
OW 25 381 539 1085 386 44 46 0
VODI 0 216 445 1316 940 227 93 0
ODI 0 132 162 1130 1849 598 408 0
CDI 0 200 90 1376 6124 5551 6064 226
VCDI 0 1 24 321 11012 11116 16846 15193


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