Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-06-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-05-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67807 20554 3503 2234 194 0 0 0
OW 46 164 684 957 310 14 0 0
VODI 0 46 324 1232 891 204 19 0
ODI 0 10 58 835 1236 668 92 0
CDI 0 0 2 528 2034 4795 2171 0
VCDI 0 0 0 275 704 10410 36242 27805
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68727 20469 3161 2128 234 0 0 0
OW 51 243 667 996 364 23 1 0
VODI 0 55 401 1137 1046 174 55 0
ODI 0 31 94 788 1180 504 231 0
CDI 0 0 35 698 2136 4400 2854 14
VCDI 0 0 20 380 716 6788 41095 25152
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70284 19718 3782 2083 176 17 0 0
OW 50 48 474 1358 259 7 0 0
VODI 0 8 119 1533 976 57 15 0
ODI 0 4 63 667 1818 384 53 0
CDI 0 0 19 660 2067 4390 1588 11
VCDI 0 0 0 84 436 8059 42155 23626
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70010 20674 3888 1994 85 13 0 0
OW 44 85 525 1490 301 0 0 0
VODI 0 31 130 1556 922 39 16 0
ODI 0 14 60 680 1827 318 70 0
CDI 0 0 69 707 2470 4337 1803 1
VCDI 0 0 0 159 628 8627 39243 24232
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Date: 2015-06-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69457 21261 3732 2472 186 0 0 0
OW 50 134 485 1409 551 36 0 0
VODI 0 48 236 1207 1154 120 9 0
ODI 0 27 112 824 1742 549 57 0
CDI 0 7 116 870 2398 4674 2416 0
VCDI 0 0 29 193 1056 7669 34052 27710
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Date: 2015-06-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68808 21782 4163 2555 130 0 0 0
OW 42 73 485 1728 335 22 0 0
VODI 0 9 104 1919 1128 54 0 0
ODI 0 0 54 614 2665 369 19 0
CDI 0 0 1 934 2326 6172 907 1
VCDI 0 0 0 75 664 6774 36804 25332
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Date: 2015-06-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67076 23920 4853 2533 190 13 0 0
OW 43 70 398 1858 347 18 0 0
VODI 0 28 148 1551 1186 68 15 0
ODI 0 3 74 634 2127 475 87 0
CDI 0 0 2 399 3112 5275 3048 6
VCDI 0 0 26 94 1130 9274 35880 21087
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Date: 2015-06-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70156 22173 4321 2267 311 1 0 0
OW 41 139 611 1789 436 10 0 0
VODI 0 48 266 1393 1163 115 11 0
ODI 0 0 102 938 1524 601 138 0
CDI 0 0 33 598 2948 5221 4065 4
VCDI 0 28 5 257 1887 9706 33530 20212
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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