Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-05-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 543 422 183 44 0 0 0
OW 0 115 216 258 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 74 273 361 104 0 0 0
ODI 0 44 191 366 240 104 1 0
CDI 0 2 106 639 1006 1022 272 0
VCDI 0 0 11 245 1210 6744 18644 12384
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 601 389 299 53 0 0 0
OW 0 172 193 275 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 154 251 343 112 4 0 0
ODI 0 103 198 371 284 114 0 0
CDI 0 18 147 628 988 1146 258 0
VCDI 0 0 11 314 883 6294 16917 14295
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1150 791 509 57 0 0 0
OW 0 93 251 458 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 196 493 182 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 37 412 451 159 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 234 916 2353 366 0
VCDI 0 0 0 207 465 5090 16135 14793
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1461 885 608 15 0 0 0
OW 0 92 315 361 52 0 0 0
VODI 0 33 166 439 199 36 0 0
ODI 0 4 50 412 428 215 3 0
CDI 0 0 3 349 951 2084 259 0
VCDI 0 0 0 117 399 5389 19647 10894
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1458 918 630 27 0 0 0
OW 0 101 287 341 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 162 449 215 38 0 0
ODI 0 4 50 394 407 231 1 0
CDI 0 0 2 351 947 2007 244 0
VCDI 0 0 0 121 397 5448 19664 10894

Date: 2015-05-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1656 920 579 25 0 0 0
OW 0 116 320 323 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 48 196 451 203 30 3 0
ODI 0 11 62 429 446 179 13 0
CDI 0 0 14 374 919 2019 144 0
VCDI 0 0 8 186 382 5691 15728 14351
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1668 998 614 37 0 0 0
OW 0 108 256 335 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 180 422 191 39 0 0
ODI 0 9 67 395 421 204 8 0
CDI 0 0 12 381 929 1900 169 0
VCDI 0 0 7 195 370 5776 15711 14351

Date: 2015-06-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1875 1149 570 47 0 0 0
OW 0 45 341 456 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 97 636 195 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 336 588 138 8 0
CDI 0 0 5 280 756 1243 180 0
VCDI 0 0 0 91 209 2339 19512 14709
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1763 1091 590 48 0 0 0
OW 0 87 245 355 72 0 0 0
VODI 0 47 163 426 219 87 6 0
ODI 0 25 53 362 349 241 54 0
CDI 0 0 37 461 898 1062 982 0
VCDI 0 0 5 175 252 2344 18658 14709

Date: 2015-06-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2035 1352 619 28 0 0 0
OW 0 63 177 473 65 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 88 512 223 39 4 0
ODI 0 0 38 237 646 198 23 0
CDI 0 0 14 365 835 1207 356 0
VCDI 0 0 0 103 598 4521 16889 14142
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1906 1123 569 52 0 0 0
OW 0 105 251 298 94 4 0 0
VODI 0 50 182 479 281 83 6 0
ODI 0 26 58 375 369 288 29 0
CDI 0 27 40 444 976 1249 823 0
VCDI 0 0 15 144 623 4341 16414 14142

Date: 2015-06-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2166 1314 832 30 0 0 0
OW 0 84 155 459 93 17 3 0
VODI 0 31 96 427 277 19 45 0
ODI 0 9 47 352 608 88 72 0
CDI 0 0 38 382 740 1119 811 0
VCDI 0 0 0 135 306 1731 17609 15771
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2043 1173 755 42 0 0 0
OW 0 93 235 383 90 1 2 0
VODI 0 63 131 557 357 52 13 0
ODI 0 33 48 338 399 165 60 0
CDI 0 54 30 395 828 1053 1166 6
VCDI 0 4 33 159 338 1703 17299 15765


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