Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-05-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65882 18433 2265 1967 311 55 0 0
OW 57 12 119 513 214 68 3 0
VODI 0 0 26 371 359 65 28 0
ODI 0 0 1 186 451 209 45 0
CDI 0 0 0 65 651 1598 265 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 119 2440 7429 4890
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66177 18254 2301 2023 284 94 0 0
OW 60 16 139 439 160 67 2 0
VODI 0 0 41 357 364 116 21 0
ODI 0 0 8 169 523 187 128 0
CDI 0 0 0 71 600 1657 550 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 171 2450 6797 4874
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66184 18325 2546 1791 350 56 0 0
OW 56 5 57 500 132 42 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 493 422 60 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 91 723 227 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 544 2570 534 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 38 2396 6066 4878
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64807 20404 2484 1442 304 75 13 0
OW 51 18 141 479 147 48 2 0
VODI 0 0 21 501 386 102 7 0
ODI 0 0 2 140 693 222 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 465 1876 461 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 103 2847 5990 4839
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64807 20402 2500 1556 340 78 13 0
OW 51 20 119 404 150 50 1 0
VODI 0 0 27 457 389 116 7 0
ODI 0 0 2 145 656 224 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 459 1682 489 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 104 3020 5958 4839

Date: 2015-05-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68745 17117 2004 1425 286 27 0 0
OW 58 20 154 473 158 25 0 0
VODI 0 7 34 445 479 110 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 137 617 281 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 378 1585 798 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 232 2044 7115 4281
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68745 17117 2029 1550 300 22 0 0
OW 58 18 136 402 170 35 0 0
VODI 0 9 28 417 499 108 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 116 572 263 41 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 358 1568 795 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 251 2076 7090 4281

Date: 2015-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67486 18389 2150 1372 193 9 0 0
OW 50 7 142 551 138 19 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 477 421 43 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 93 837 155 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 426 2705 401 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 99 1233 7004 4656
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67483 18353 2104 1632 305 31 2 0
OW 53 33 137 335 194 73 14 0
VODI 0 10 45 360 547 142 54 0
ODI 0 0 7 130 463 211 192 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 402 1467 760 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 203 2240 6406 4656

Date: 2015-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68536 17594 2011 1404 240 18 1 0
OW 53 5 172 457 178 12 0 0
VODI 0 0 35 460 488 55 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 153 676 202 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 594 2102 669 0
VCDI 0 0 0 32 115 1501 6693 4591
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68533 17485 1839 1559 420 64 1 0
OW 56 86 179 318 273 88 3 0
VODI 0 28 151 302 467 162 39 0
ODI 0 0 48 182 354 228 214 0
CDI 0 0 1 140 506 1244 870 0
VCDI 0 0 0 37 271 2104 6257 4591

Date: 2015-05-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67807 18227 2302 1364 173 0 0 0
OW 46 11 236 423 208 13 0 0
VODI 0 0 57 480 507 86 13 0
ODI 0 0 1 222 541 226 51 0
CDI 0 0 0 73 766 1870 935 0
VCDI 0 0 0 47 148 2030 8234 2003
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67807 17976 2176 1610 437 102 8 0
OW 46 140 150 269 361 100 30 0
VODI 0 90 144 236 291 152 156 0
ODI 0 32 71 203 303 137 254 0
CDI 0 0 55 235 676 1085 1018 0
VCDI 0 0 0 56 275 2649 7767 2003


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