Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-05-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 347 105 66 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 43 38 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 20 142 90 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 173 94 35 10 0
CDI 0 0 18 168 546 611 375 19
VCDI 0 0 3 48 127 1855 9755 17324
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 362 100 52 8 0 0 0
OW 0 0 53 25 45 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 33 113 75 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 173 114 42 2 0
CDI 0 0 3 268 482 552 252 0
VCDI 0 0 0 46 226 1534 10082 17418
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 304 121 121 44 0 0 0
OW 0 0 8 154 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 217 84 18 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 135 230 83 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 111 526 864 721 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 151 1092 10110 16954
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 342 63 193 16 0 0 0
OW 0 0 34 214 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 20 208 81 32 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 168 155 108 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 175 463 777 712 1
VCDI 0 0 0 45 235 1101 9888 17021
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 342 62 230 16 0 0 0
OW 0 0 35 181 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 19 199 78 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 155 151 115 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 192 471 749 679 1
VCDI 0 0 0 46 236 1137 9923 17021

Date: 2015-05-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 461 127 138 6 0 0 0
OW 0 64 161 146 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 103 176 131 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 57 158 231 49 14 0
CDI 0 0 36 236 458 586 156 10
VCDI 0 0 0 11 265 1958 11395 14915
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 469 154 149 6 0 0 0
OW 0 54 137 119 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 82 191 112 4 2 0
ODI 0 0 66 148 226 57 18 0
CDI 0 0 45 250 480 649 171 5
VCDI 0 0 0 8 264 1884 11374 14920

Date: 2015-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 643 309 160 1 0 0 0
OW 0 26 172 165 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 53 384 164 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 177 546 81 5 0
CDI 0 0 4 37 405 1389 84 0
VCDI 0 0 0 32 138 1983 12689 12430
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 542 188 161 1 0 0 0
OW 0 79 108 101 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 39 78 204 174 0 0 0
ODI 0 10 90 131 243 59 7 0
CDI 0 0 75 305 566 758 170 4
VCDI 0 0 0 53 265 2636 12601 12426

Date: 2015-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 790 293 191 7 0 0 0
OW 0 39 128 211 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 100 298 191 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 216 360 130 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 81 377 750 539 0
VCDI 0 0 0 51 139 1712 13137 12266
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 594 224 228 15 0 0 0
OW 0 113 52 142 70 0 0 0
VODI 0 68 94 132 172 27 0 0
ODI 0 47 62 156 159 126 20 0
CDI 0 10 98 325 423 475 457 0
VCDI 0 0 0 65 279 1980 13203 12266

Date: 2015-05-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 808 283 219 7 0 0 0
OW 0 53 147 188 53 1 0 0
VODI 0 2 102 302 173 84 6 0
ODI 0 0 7 198 229 223 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 104 342 1159 851 0
VCDI 0 0 0 74 188 1787 11403 13058
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 576 247 241 18 8 0 0
OW 0 121 48 134 55 37 0 0
VODI 0 91 79 161 108 63 8 0
ODI 0 55 66 156 156 104 43 0
CDI 0 20 99 303 358 752 910 0
VCDI 0 0 0 90 297 2290 11330 13058


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