Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-05-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65882 18797 2472 2040 324 55 0 0
OW 57 55 189 609 272 68 3 0
VODI 0 26 155 739 497 75 28 0
ODI 0 10 123 662 705 268 55 0
CDI 0 1 195 760 1992 2645 764 19
VCDI 0 0 54 349 1467 9600 35756 39280
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66177 18616 2403 2103 296 94 0 0
OW 60 89 323 555 209 69 2 0
VODI 0 111 166 759 488 130 21 0
ODI 0 63 157 635 800 261 133 0
CDI 0 30 297 860 1804 2667 937 0
VCDI 0 5 96 495 1743 10079 36134 37181
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66184 18910 3011 2106 395 56 0 0
OW 56 54 320 933 171 42 0 0
VODI 0 41 254 1034 588 83 2 0
ODI 0 7 234 662 1130 348 26 0
CDI 0 1 63 706 1978 4363 1417 0
VCDI 0 0 7 300 1111 9639 38957 31859
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64807 21117 3007 1880 332 75 13 0
OW 51 86 403 975 200 48 2 0
VODI 0 45 317 1061 546 134 7 0
ODI 0 29 136 788 1074 394 31 0
CDI 0 0 76 819 2017 3533 1391 1
VCDI 0 0 11 348 1346 10193 35261 34494
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64807 21136 3084 2074 375 78 13 0
OW 51 70 366 826 206 50 1 0
VODI 0 49 298 1032 561 133 7 0
ODI 0 22 124 768 1031 388 32 0
CDI 0 0 67 821 1966 3248 1425 1
VCDI 0 0 11 350 1376 10480 35227 34494

Date: 2015-05-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68745 18091 2544 1852 322 27 0 0
OW 58 238 501 885 220 25 0 0
VODI 0 145 396 987 725 114 0 0
ODI 0 53 253 674 1139 400 27 0
CDI 0 7 146 880 1877 3357 1202 10
VCDI 0 0 7 383 1270 9709 35766 34013
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68745 18144 2636 2019 339 22 0 0
OW 58 201 459 773 241 35 0 0
VODI 0 140 368 966 739 112 2 0
ODI 0 49 243 640 1081 393 60 0
CDI 0 0 134 899 1852 3375 1215 5
VCDI 0 0 7 364 1301 9695 35718 34018

Date: 2015-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67486 20002 3109 1889 260 9 0 0
OW 50 173 687 1185 175 19 0 0
VODI 0 5 244 1483 754 50 5 0
ODI 0 1 37 718 1864 330 23 0
CDI 0 0 4 291 1766 6624 626 0
VCDI 0 0 0 187 673 8491 35486 32342
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67483 19531 2704 2106 382 31 2 0
OW 53 335 507 724 253 73 14 0
VODI 0 215 344 940 877 147 54 0
ODI 0 84 281 608 937 462 202 0
CDI 0 16 231 994 1833 3410 1298 12
VCDI 0 0 14 381 1210 11400 34570 32330

Date: 2015-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68536 19734 3074 2217 256 18 1 0
OW 53 135 606 1087 250 12 0 0
VODI 0 25 316 1191 862 97 0 0
ODI 0 1 52 782 1467 521 28 0
CDI 0 0 0 352 1923 5331 1427 0
VCDI 0 0 0 239 670 8096 38628 29061
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68533 18923 2469 2277 462 64 1 0
OW 56 433 480 716 382 88 3 0
VODI 0 307 494 730 795 234 39 0
ODI 0 163 298 681 751 570 265 0
CDI 0 69 303 1047 1842 3070 1804 0
VCDI 0 0 4 417 1196 10049 37972 29061

Date: 2015-05-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67807 20554 3503 2234 194 0 0 0
OW 46 164 684 957 310 14 0 0
VODI 0 46 324 1232 891 204 19 0
ODI 0 10 58 835 1236 668 92 0
CDI 0 0 2 528 2034 4795 2171 0
VCDI 0 0 0 275 704 10410 36242 27805
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67807 19544 2989 2459 512 110 8 0
OW 46 522 464 570 486 148 30 0
VODI 0 375 481 697 591 302 174 0
ODI 0 225 311 807 741 484 343 0
CDI 0 108 320 1073 1886 3128 2556 0
VCDI 0 0 6 455 1153 11919 35413 27805


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