Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-05-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65975 18111 2200 1541 353 185 66 0
OW 60 55 213 420 278 68 57 0
VODI 0 26 63 385 308 114 70 0
ODI 0 2 42 251 363 209 64 0
CDI 0 0 23 107 560 656 225 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 323 3130 7574 5003
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65980 18190 2234 1556 411 172 27 0
OW 60 50 245 420 182 81 40 0
VODI 0 15 96 428 270 155 49 0
ODI 0 0 36 247 396 216 36 0
CDI 0 0 15 121 551 555 205 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 258 3017 7749 5021
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66184 18061 2519 1723 312 129 0 0
OW 56 11 117 543 147 58 15 0
VODI 0 0 36 380 421 73 36 0
ODI 0 0 6 109 448 237 35 0
CDI 0 0 0 39 538 1177 244 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 123 1866 8453 5004
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65926 18395 2386 1862 244 27 0 0
OW 58 17 117 564 174 66 0 0
VODI 0 0 35 397 381 77 13 0
ODI 0 0 5 167 499 170 33 0
CDI 0 0 0 85 635 1355 209 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 165 2135 7968 4933
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65926 18400 2394 1931 261 27 0 0
OW 58 12 109 515 177 65 0 0
VODI 0 0 35 382 402 86 14 0
ODI 0 0 5 155 486 193 28 0
CDI 0 0 0 92 609 1315 200 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 163 2144 7981 4933

Date: 2015-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66283 18021 2335 1909 334 84 0 0
OW 56 23 155 477 204 71 0 0
VODI 0 0 40 356 363 83 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 203 484 194 59 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 804 1591 496 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 134 2611 6836 4846
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66283 18024 2334 1935 395 82 0 0
OW 56 20 155 456 168 69 0 0
VODI 0 0 41 346 353 100 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 201 462 200 49 0
CDI 0 0 0 49 809 1562 437 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 136 2621 6903 4846

Date: 2015-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65683 18496 2818 1690 308 116 1 0
OW 57 4 109 475 113 55 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 425 446 78 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 84 709 220 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 514 2681 344 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 2014 6621 4990
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65681 18476 2708 1823 395 175 2 0
OW 59 24 161 276 193 92 19 0
VODI 0 0 47 351 338 140 52 0
ODI 0 0 13 151 525 236 110 0
CDI 0 0 1 68 495 1978 607 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 169 2543 6191 4990

Date: 2015-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65883 18575 2739 1710 391 87 0 0
OW 55 6 92 498 118 65 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 509 404 110 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 93 730 233 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 422 2355 512 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 110 2469 6037 4888
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65882 18565 2608 1790 470 111 0 0
OW 56 16 183 345 159 95 0 0
VODI 0 0 41 447 322 154 10 0
ODI 0 0 0 182 607 262 62 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 468 2202 593 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 149 2495 5889 4888

Date: 2015-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66960 18465 2528 1297 277 47 0 0
OW 52 26 180 475 155 40 1 0
VODI 0 7 28 477 371 127 13 0
ODI 0 0 5 173 604 244 36 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 470 1398 812 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 208 2995 5287 5306
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66959 18324 2393 1433 450 101 12 0
OW 53 113 151 316 126 84 22 0
VODI 0 45 134 312 320 161 57 0
ODI 0 16 50 224 481 246 127 0
CDI 0 0 13 167 491 1343 771 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 217 2916 5160 5306


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