Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-05-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 12 21 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 118 87 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 84 438 602 37 12
VCDI 0 0 0 281 1477 6252 18321 18069
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 7 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 9 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 35 40 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 115 123 59 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 215 579 345 42 0
VCDI 0 0 64 438 1618 6630 18476 17052
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 16 43 10 0 0 0
OW 0 0 11 127 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 22 208 80 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 116 254 168 12 3 0
CDI 0 0 46 335 720 190 50 0
VCDI 0 0 23 322 1286 7196 17939 16667
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 10 97 20 6 0 0 0
OW 0 18 47 56 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 103 223 43 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 118 274 126 38 1 0
CDI 0 2 116 381 794 413 105 0
VCDI 0 0 48 294 1174 5918 18897 16506
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 11 95 32 12 0 0 0
OW 0 16 39 61 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 97 196 50 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 132 282 130 41 4 0
CDI 0 2 121 394 757 463 98 0
VCDI 0 0 45 283 1196 5865 18901 16506

Date: 2015-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 5 104 23 14 0 0 0
OW 0 58 26 69 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 59 89 247 45 0 0 0
ODI 0 34 148 324 185 12 6 0
CDI 0 35 228 571 781 553 183 0
VCDI 0 0 67 366 1378 7300 17494 15453
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 18 118 36 20 0 0 0
OW 0 50 23 85 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 53 76 229 60 0 0 0
ODI 0 36 147 335 164 13 6 0
CDI 0 34 245 614 845 607 176 0
VCDI 0 0 53 301 1318 7245 17501 15453

Date: 2015-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 167 135 97 3 0 0 0
OW 0 85 300 320 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 176 413 115 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 185 444 262 58 3 0
CDI 0 0 47 380 1067 1094 157 0
VCDI 0 0 6 182 850 4985 21421 12863
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 49 112 89 3 0 0 0
OW 0 84 68 86 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 69 96 270 66 0 0 0
ODI 0 48 155 302 152 57 9 0
CDI 0 11 369 578 740 483 207 0
VCDI 0 0 49 511 1344 5603 21365 12863

Date: 2015-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 450 364 205 12 0 0 0
OW 0 81 170 273 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 61 254 304 69 9 0 0
ODI 0 5 203 447 173 61 8 0
CDI 0 1 64 587 916 1021 203 0
VCDI 0 0 20 293 753 6325 21639 10858
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 227 183 99 2 0 0 0
OW 0 53 84 91 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 105 179 232 72 4 0 0
ODI 0 112 177 320 105 67 5 0
CDI 0 100 335 746 660 658 142 0
VCDI 0 1 117 621 1090 6687 21703 10858

Date: 2015-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 543 422 183 44 0 0 0
OW 0 115 216 258 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 74 273 361 104 0 0 0
ODI 0 44 191 366 240 104 1 0
CDI 0 2 106 639 1006 1022 272 0
VCDI 0 0 11 245 1210 6744 18644 12384
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 206 227 42 1 0 0 0
OW 0 112 124 90 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 115 178 220 117 1 0 0
ODI 0 152 150 349 159 62 3 0
CDI 0 161 378 874 782 645 210 0
VCDI 0 32 162 477 1557 7162 18704 12384


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