Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-05-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65975 18473 2257 1556 355 185 66 0
OW 60 69 245 487 300 68 57 0
VODI 0 29 80 494 372 121 70 0
ODI 0 2 53 380 538 296 64 14
CDI 0 0 26 343 1224 1363 338 81
VCDI 0 0 0 330 2286 11249 36695 40447
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65980 18513 2303 1596 417 172 27 0
OW 60 66 274 479 230 81 40 0
VODI 0 15 114 513 339 162 49 0
ODI 0 0 44 456 548 282 50 0
CDI 0 0 15 491 1386 1115 452 32
VCDI 0 0 64 507 2654 11770 35496 40256
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66184 18448 2668 1817 332 129 0 0
OW 56 11 154 721 185 58 15 0
VODI 0 4 67 714 565 80 37 0
ODI 0 7 126 494 752 301 68 2
CDI 0 0 48 470 1915 2162 495 25
VCDI 0 0 23 338 1657 10803 36665 38452
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65926 18791 2579 1933 257 27 0 0
OW 58 36 212 660 231 66 0 0
VODI 0 12 165 733 516 89 13 0
ODI 0 7 135 615 723 257 68 0
CDI 0 2 126 579 2060 2546 595 11
VCDI 0 0 48 341 1510 10172 38172 36777
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65926 18797 2592 2011 281 27 0 0
OW 58 29 186 615 226 65 0 0
VODI 0 14 156 680 551 98 14 0
ODI 0 6 149 604 708 293 68 0
CDI 0 2 133 609 2000 2554 563 12
VCDI 0 0 49 342 1531 10120 38203 36776

Date: 2015-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66283 18377 2542 1993 357 84 0 0
OW 56 84 243 590 258 71 0 0
VODI 0 59 161 729 495 95 6 0
ODI 0 34 162 714 757 261 65 0
CDI 0 35 244 777 2059 2744 789 1
VCDI 0 0 76 418 1684 11613 33525 38607
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66283 18392 2566 2019 425 82 0 0
OW 56 74 221 593 217 69 0 0
VODI 0 53 153 710 504 111 8 0
ODI 0 36 158 708 706 294 55 0
CDI 0 34 262 831 2119 2739 750 2
VCDI 0 0 68 360 1639 11573 33572 38606

Date: 2015-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65683 19003 3077 1883 328 116 1 0
OW 57 89 430 883 178 55 0 0
VODI 0 9 186 1122 638 86 5 0
ODI 0 0 187 654 1237 343 22 0
CDI 0 0 47 464 2147 5060 676 2
VCDI 0 0 6 182 933 8253 38322 34684
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65681 18863 2914 1966 415 175 2 0
OW 59 110 255 414 257 92 19 0
VODI 0 69 156 762 481 148 52 0
ODI 0 48 176 606 786 401 141 0
CDI 0 11 379 851 1715 3304 1292 8
VCDI 0 0 53 589 1807 9793 37520 34678

Date: 2015-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65883 19315 3207 2079 442 87 0 0
OW 55 87 281 940 167 65 0 0
VODI 0 61 259 1036 547 151 0 0
ODI 0 5 204 690 1097 399 24 0
CDI 0 1 64 736 1776 4306 1468 1
VCDI 0 0 20 317 1082 9698 37715 32783
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65882 19082 2863 1996 504 111 0 0
OW 56 69 299 510 217 100 0 0
VODI 0 105 233 886 464 205 11 0
ODI 0 112 183 653 824 457 121 0
CDI 0 100 340 1057 1509 3392 1403 1
VCDI 0 1 117 696 1593 10441 37672 32783

Date: 2015-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66960 19396 3024 1693 326 47 0 0
OW 52 146 515 891 222 40 1 0
VODI 0 81 370 998 630 138 13 0
ODI 0 44 215 695 1003 467 53 0
CDI 0 2 110 872 1934 3029 1650 0
VCDI 0 0 11 264 1654 11218 35112 33172
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66959 18849 2650 1611 452 101 12 0
OW 53 267 277 505 212 85 22 0
VODI 0 191 347 680 534 196 57 0
ODI 0 169 272 653 757 401 206 0
CDI 0 161 507 1353 1635 2450 1753 0
VCDI 0 32 192 611 2179 11706 34779 33172


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