Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-05-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63959 18126 2510 1800 384 242 10 0
OW 60 66 197 473 368 148 0 0
VODI 0 51 48 405 587 270 0 0
ODI 0 12 43 155 372 491 7 0
CDI 0 0 34 151 493 1199 196 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 288 2219 8370 5366
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64102 18299 2471 1635 360 203 8 0
OW 60 74 261 552 420 121 1 0
VODI 0 34 61 426 513 266 0 0
ODI 0 3 53 176 363 419 4 0
CDI 0 0 10 151 570 1056 273 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 196 1885 8508 5566
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63042 19083 3287 1721 387 222 1 0
OW 60 35 128 685 314 115 0 0
VODI 0 0 41 409 500 178 0 0
ODI 0 0 20 168 477 291 2 0
CDI 0 0 2 95 602 1216 56 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 157 2651 7991 5162
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65764 17566 2598 1779 388 221 0 0
OW 60 54 184 467 299 94 16 0
VODI 0 21 55 392 349 151 36 0
ODI 0 0 33 226 388 211 44 0
CDI 0 0 22 124 628 779 131 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 214 2763 8061 4981
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65764 17560 2619 1816 448 233 1 0
OW 60 48 171 437 230 81 15 0
VODI 0 32 43 395 372 149 32 0
ODI 0 1 35 226 373 210 49 0
CDI 0 0 24 107 620 770 150 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 223 2776 8041 4981

Date: 2015-05-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65696 18332 2254 1586 340 185 48 0
OW 60 56 208 413 268 75 49 0
VODI 0 32 68 395 296 114 60 0
ODI 0 1 47 227 395 217 64 0
CDI 0 0 23 96 559 619 295 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 311 3214 7482 4997
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65696 18321 2275 1620 389 210 58 0
OW 60 58 178 373 205 50 45 0
VODI 0 41 71 378 324 117 61 0
ODI 0 1 46 236 367 210 61 0
CDI 0 0 30 99 515 628 325 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 369 3209 7448 4997

Date: 2015-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66095 18287 2287 1570 301 92 1 0
OW 56 39 245 622 126 65 27 0
VODI 0 0 35 502 370 50 44 0
ODI 0 0 6 130 535 170 34 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 528 1230 162 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 128 1870 8389 5073
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66091 18144 2123 1729 407 174 31 0
OW 60 127 189 344 150 55 56 0
VODI 0 48 161 398 287 120 59 0
ODI 0 7 70 187 309 203 48 0
CDI 0 0 25 152 467 594 280 0
VCDI 0 0 5 45 368 2331 8183 5073

Date: 2015-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65964 18391 2449 1713 309 74 0 0
OW 61 5 127 571 158 66 0 0
VODI 0 0 29 381 381 76 19 0
ODI 0 0 4 141 471 221 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 64 567 1234 241 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 131 1856 8412 4952
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65962 18224 2150 1706 438 147 12 0
OW 63 137 213 399 150 57 31 0
VODI 0 29 159 343 339 127 47 0
ODI 0 6 61 221 280 224 44 0
CDI 0 0 25 176 500 937 430 0
VCDI 0 0 1 27 310 2035 8138 4952

Date: 2015-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65882 18433 2265 1967 311 55 0 0
OW 57 12 119 513 214 68 3 0
VODI 0 0 26 371 359 65 28 0
ODI 0 0 1 186 451 209 45 0
CDI 0 0 0 65 651 1598 265 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 119 2440 7429 4890
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65880 18320 2153 1937 422 109 17 0
OW 59 84 141 535 218 56 33 0
VODI 0 24 66 292 409 97 54 0
ODI 0 17 23 171 316 280 95 0
CDI 0 0 25 105 489 1318 629 0
VCDI 0 0 3 65 251 2575 6942 4890


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