Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-05-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 114 96 67 0 0 0 0
OW 0 22 12 105 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 20 66 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 12 68 37 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 53 187 42 41 10
VCDI 0 0 0 31 480 937 8568 21094
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 110 117 15 0 0 0 0
OW 0 11 50 86 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 96 30 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 66 44 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 92 63 27 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 229 1161 6887 22949
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 291 114 25 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 18 43 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 18 53 49 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 75 62 19 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 98 218 216 96 5
VCDI 0 0 0 35 629 1875 8060 20042
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 202 174 37 2 0 0 0
OW 0 0 26 60 17 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 11 87 30 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 90 65 18 6 3
CDI 0 0 0 107 251 142 156 109
VCDI 0 0 0 12 499 2208 10953 16798
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 202 186 43 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 19 60 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 6 80 34 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 97 64 22 18 3
CDI 0 0 0 105 277 187 198 117
VCDI 0 0 0 8 473 2161 10899 16790

Date: 2015-05-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 341 69 17 4 0 0 0
OW 0 15 26 64 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 25 62 37 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 96 34 8 9 1
CDI 0 0 0 199 244 189 58 67
VCDI 0 0 0 47 873 2289 8102 19165
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 346 72 43 6 0 0 0
OW 0 13 26 38 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 22 67 41 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 119 39 7 7 3
CDI 0 0 0 171 262 193 78 89
VCDI 0 0 0 47 849 2286 8084 19141

Date: 2015-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 379 92 58 10 0 0 0
OW 0 2 24 67 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 155 66 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 126 194 29 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 61 498 1028 194 33
VCDI 0 0 0 1 126 1307 10603 16986
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 361 56 65 14 0 0 0
OW 0 15 15 11 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 30 46 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 101 37 15 14 5
CDI 0 0 2 165 283 162 272 89
VCDI 0 0 0 80 539 2187 10522 16925

Date: 2015-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 396 112 46 13 0 0 0
OW 0 0 29 46 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 14 93 82 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 126 133 64 33 1
CDI 0 0 2 98 706 733 361 15
VCDI 0 0 0 21 145 1704 10796 16266
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 340 70 51 38 0 0 0
OW 0 35 0 0 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 20 25 26 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 41 69 45 39 32 5
CDI 0 0 22 137 169 351 366 38
VCDI 0 0 10 148 818 2117 10792 16239

Date: 2015-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 347 105 66 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 43 38 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 20 142 90 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 173 94 35 10 0
CDI 0 0 18 168 546 611 375 19
VCDI 0 0 3 48 127 1855 9755 17324
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 308 81 67 32 0 0 0
OW 0 30 18 2 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 25 27 11 7 6 0
ODI 0 0 26 85 36 52 39 10
CDI 0 0 17 134 176 272 372 53
VCDI 0 0 33 320 650 2178 9723 17280


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