Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-05-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 21 9 0 2 0
VODI 0 0 0 46 61 1 13 0
ODI 0 0 0 48 95 48 36 0
CDI 0 0 0 123 426 430 216 10
VCDI 0 0 0 119 1071 5520 18619 18952
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 19 46 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 131 28 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 432 510 235 26
VCDI 0 0 0 61 1525 5482 17295 19959
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 2 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 43 30 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 99 136 77 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 76 460 434 71 0
VCDI 0 0 0 67 1251 4942 18209 19955
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 8 25 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 179 101 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 381 518 53 0
VCDI 0 0 0 115 1280 4774 18299 20073
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 9 29 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 182 97 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 395 526 70 2
VCDI 0 0 0 111 1261 4770 18282 20071

Date: 2015-05-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 37 19 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 83 123 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 157 658 540 47 0
VCDI 0 0 21 439 1532 6511 18909 16740
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 26 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 65 23 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 78 145 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 164 626 533 100 0
VCDI 0 0 21 406 1538 6508 18856 16740

Date: 2015-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 6 14 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 26 125 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 13 204 90 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 139 262 216 13 2 0
CDI 0 7 41 309 747 295 72 0
VCDI 0 0 0 190 1243 7902 17279 16659
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 16 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 7 88 74 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 26 153 150 23 5 0
CDI 0 0 34 328 466 209 89 0
VCDI 0 7 158 514 1608 7975 17259 16659

Date: 2015-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 46 37 8 0 0 0
OW 0 0 45 68 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 90 207 48 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 113 258 122 20 4 0
CDI 0 2 84 369 728 208 77 0
VCDI 0 0 17 285 1318 6642 18708 16341
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
OW 0 0 5 12 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 50 106 45 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 68 188 121 49 13 0
CDI 0 0 65 338 415 300 223 0
VCDI 0 7 207 580 1646 6513 18553 16341

Date: 2015-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 17 102 7 9 0 0 0
OW 0 43 27 58 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 109 226 48 2 0 0
ODI 0 10 111 303 160 24 0 0
CDI 0 1 177 527 795 436 124 0
VCDI 0 0 51 298 1221 5305 18572 17066
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 2 5 19 0 0 0
OW 0 0 31 30 18 2 0 0
VODI 0 5 96 127 55 12 0 0
ODI 0 42 69 192 139 62 5 0
CDI 0 42 145 462 466 416 205 1
VCDI 0 8 234 603 1547 5275 18486 17065


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