Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-05-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63959 18240 2606 1867 384 242 10 0
OW 60 88 209 599 377 148 2 0
VODI 0 52 68 517 651 271 13 0
ODI 0 12 55 271 504 553 43 0
CDI 0 0 36 327 1106 1671 453 20
VCDI 0 0 0 150 1839 8676 35557 45412
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64102 18409 2588 1650 360 203 8 0
OW 60 85 311 639 421 121 1 0
VODI 0 34 69 541 589 267 0 0
ODI 0 3 53 278 538 449 13 0
CDI 0 0 10 254 1094 1629 535 31
VCDI 0 0 0 61 1950 8528 32690 48474
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63042 19374 3401 1746 387 222 1 0
OW 60 37 146 730 351 115 0 0
VODI 0 0 59 505 579 193 0 0
ODI 0 0 20 342 675 387 3 0
CDI 0 0 2 269 1280 1866 223 5
VCDI 0 0 0 104 2037 9468 34260 45159
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65764 17768 2772 1816 390 221 0 0
OW 60 54 210 527 318 95 16 0
VODI 0 21 66 487 404 179 36 0
ODI 0 0 33 334 632 330 50 3
CDI 0 0 22 261 1260 1439 340 109
VCDI 0 0 0 128 1993 9745 37313 41852
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65764 17762 2805 1859 448 233 1 0
OW 60 48 190 497 246 81 15 0
VODI 0 32 49 484 435 176 32 0
ODI 0 1 35 341 619 329 67 3
CDI 0 0 24 245 1292 1483 418 119
VCDI 0 0 0 127 1957 9707 37222 41842

Date: 2015-05-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65696 18673 2323 1608 344 185 48 0
OW 60 71 234 495 296 75 49 0
VODI 0 37 93 494 352 114 60 0
ODI 0 1 55 406 552 252 73 1
CDI 0 0 23 452 1461 1348 400 67
VCDI 0 0 21 504 2716 12014 34493 40902
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65696 18667 2347 1663 395 210 58 0
OW 60 71 204 437 228 50 45 0
VODI 0 43 93 510 388 117 61 0
ODI 0 1 54 433 551 254 68 3
CDI 0 0 30 434 1403 1354 503 89
VCDI 0 0 21 482 2756 12003 34388 40878

Date: 2015-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66095 18666 2385 1642 315 92 1 0
OW 56 41 295 814 166 65 27 0
VODI 0 0 48 861 526 50 44 0
ODI 0 0 145 518 945 212 47 0
CDI 0 7 41 401 1773 2553 428 33
VCDI 0 0 0 191 1497 11079 36271 38718
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66091 18505 2179 1799 422 174 31 0
OW 60 142 204 371 198 55 56 0
VODI 0 53 198 532 375 123 59 0
ODI 0 7 109 441 496 241 67 5
CDI 0 0 61 645 1216 965 641 89
VCDI 0 7 163 639 2515 12493 35964 38657

Date: 2015-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65964 18787 2607 1796 330 74 0 0
OW 61 5 201 685 201 66 0 0
VODI 0 5 133 681 511 90 19 0
ODI 0 0 123 525 726 305 67 1
CDI 0 2 86 531 2001 2175 679 15
VCDI 0 0 17 308 1594 10202 37916 37559
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65962 18564 2220 1757 478 147 12 0
OW 63 172 218 411 171 57 31 0
VODI 0 50 229 474 410 143 47 0
ODI 0 6 170 478 446 312 89 5
CDI 0 0 112 651 1084 1588 1019 38
VCDI 0 7 218 755 2774 10665 37483 37532

Date: 2015-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65882 18797 2472 2040 324 55 0 0
OW 57 55 189 609 272 68 3 0
VODI 0 26 155 739 497 75 28 0
ODI 0 10 123 662 705 268 55 0
CDI 0 1 195 760 1992 2645 764 19
VCDI 0 0 54 349 1467 9600 35756 39280
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65880 18628 2236 2009 473 109 17 0
OW 59 114 190 567 239 58 33 0
VODI 0 38 187 446 475 116 60 0
ODI 0 59 118 448 491 394 139 10
CDI 0 42 187 701 1131 2006 1206 54
VCDI 0 8 270 988 2448 10028 35151 39235


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