Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-04-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-04-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 140 102 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 17 40 49 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 35 65 16 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 71 45 28 2 1
CDI 0 0 0 121 167 228 75 20
VCDI 0 0 0 46 658 2275 9411 18444
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 112 72 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 17 48 73 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 28 69 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 44 37 9 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 78 189 197 96 11
VCDI 0 0 0 27 565 1762 10256 18358
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 85 130 87 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 9 93 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 66 18 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 154 37 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 241 221 106 13
VCDI 0 0 0 0 191 1393 10765 18438
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 103 102 92 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 15 97 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 17 60 18 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 30 62 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 30 185 89 93 12
VCDI 0 0 0 18 279 1078 9301 20360
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 102 102 104 0 0 0 0
OW 0 7 16 86 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 16 60 17 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 30 66 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 199 96 92 15
VCDI 0 0 0 17 262 1094 9302 20357

Date: 2015-05-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 130 109 28 0 0 0 0
OW 0 20 27 94 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 43 55 8 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 54 54 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 56 114 28 40 12
VCDI 0 0 0 38 342 1279 7712 21823
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 133 124 50 0 0 0 0
OW 0 17 21 78 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 36 47 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 58 39 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 57 147 32 45 12
VCDI 0 0 0 35 328 1275 7707 21823

Date: 2015-05-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 235 168 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 27 38 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 93 53 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 64 101 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 252 187 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 171 1073 6503 23013
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 210 56 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 28 107 13 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 34 56 24 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 77 60 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 60 172 64 14 2
VCDI 0 0 0 44 331 1212 6496 23011

Date: 2015-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 192 199 39 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 14 52 27 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 52 30 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 62 58 43 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 66 299 307 160 141
VCDI 0 0 0 7 588 2411 9104 18194
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 179 96 9 1 0 0 0
OW 0 13 92 37 19 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 26 60 15 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 63 62 93 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 73 181 310 169 29
VCDI 0 0 0 36 728 2371 9069 18306

Date: 2015-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 362 57 15 2 0 0 0
OW 0 14 32 57 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 17 97 43 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 91 57 0 0 14
CDI 0 0 3 152 226 105 76 69
VCDI 0 0 0 29 486 1867 10800 17375
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 258 26 8 4 0 0 0
OW 0 75 19 11 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 29 35 23 3 0 0
ODI 0 19 12 99 35 64 32 1
CDI 0 2 34 105 110 267 312 118
VCDI 0 0 0 183 640 1638 10532 17339


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