Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-04-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-04-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 12 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 77 60 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 259 572 216 0
VCDI 0 0 0 40 776 5831 19213 18777
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 30 63 2 19 0
ODI 0 0 0 43 93 22 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 71 286 511 164 19
VCDI 0 0 0 42 828 4988 19560 19109
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 48 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 68 54 7 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 37 84 36 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 54 380 547 199 29
VCDI 0 0 0 120 656 4616 19068 19822
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 31 10 2 2 0
VODI 0 0 0 48 69 2 12 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 132 20 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 102 476 448 85 3
VCDI 0 0 0 263 842 4686 19349 19226
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 23 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 22 11 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 38 83 2 12 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 138 24 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 102 456 481 85 16
VCDI 0 0 0 261 840 4650 19349 19213

Date: 2015-05-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 9 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 43 47 5 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 96 71 70 0
CDI 0 0 0 106 376 394 324 17
VCDI 0 0 0 121 1370 5528 18583 18662
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 4 2 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 15 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 36 64 4 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 118 77 87 0
CDI 0 0 0 105 361 467 308 18
VCDI 0 0 0 117 1344 5450 18582 18661

Date: 2015-05-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 39 34 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 196 35 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 480 520 92 4
VCDI 0 0 0 61 989 5111 17485 20731
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 31 47 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 137 33 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 49 411 457 127 40
VCDI 0 0 0 69 1104 5175 17442 20695

Date: 2015-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 20 34 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 133 119 82 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 74 435 500 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 76 1449 4493 17981 20391
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 47 52 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 99 107 74 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 55 368 377 79 13
VCDI 0 0 0 102 1511 4629 17964 20378

Date: 2015-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 12 21 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 118 87 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 84 438 602 37 12
VCDI 0 0 0 281 1477 6252 18321 18069
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 26 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 46 113 73 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 369 436 62 0
VCDI 0 0 0 338 1546 6430 18292 18081


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