Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-04-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-04-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63010 17597 2461 1649 608 330 11 0
OW 62 310 444 679 402 150 16 0
VODI 0 211 258 588 1088 292 32 0
ODI 0 67 114 403 552 493 90 1
CDI 0 33 89 368 844 1338 453 20
VCDI 0 0 3 186 2101 12626 35051 42018
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62438 18646 2604 1515 386 313 62 0
OW 61 259 405 896 510 164 26 0
VODI 0 140 193 538 669 249 49 0
ODI 0 45 101 370 385 515 54 0
CDI 0 70 54 402 908 1393 349 30
VCDI 0 3 49 217 2049 10975 36910 42046
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64349 17699 2628 1623 343 284 0 0
OW 60 52 229 1064 342 112 0 0
VODI 0 48 81 540 623 177 8 0
ODI 0 7 71 247 771 524 16 0
CDI 0 0 13 208 1203 2531 419 42
VCDI 0 0 0 121 1107 9329 37150 43027
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63620 18443 2586 2019 415 292 0 0
OW 60 68 195 601 352 149 2 0
VODI 0 40 74 486 677 252 12 0
ODI 0 3 58 237 578 565 29 0
CDI 0 0 28 261 1184 1928 434 15
VCDI 0 0 0 282 1339 8032 37009 44723
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63620 18443 2590 2142 439 283 0 0
OW 60 67 196 526 314 149 0 0
VODI 0 33 70 471 670 249 13 0
ODI 0 11 56 213 639 565 51 0
CDI 0 0 29 255 1153 1934 453 31
VCDI 0 0 0 279 1330 8038 36969 44707

Date: 2015-05-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63473 18633 2761 1814 338 179 79 0
OW 60 100 261 635 350 149 17 0
VODI 0 59 115 497 587 256 11 0
ODI 0 20 46 254 522 492 92 0
CDI 0 3 48 298 991 1608 539 29
VCDI 0 0 0 159 1974 8752 34867 45980
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63473 18631 2798 1872 387 189 81 0
OW 60 88 248 586 262 150 15 0
VODI 0 64 96 504 597 240 15 0
ODI 0 19 42 258 564 472 127 0
CDI 0 13 47 281 1014 1688 553 30
VCDI 0 0 0 156 1938 8697 34814 45979

Date: 2015-05-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64117 18623 2901 1665 286 163 0 0
OW 60 28 195 867 313 76 0 0
VODI 0 0 30 654 644 133 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 260 872 347 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 154 1271 2154 191 4
VCDI 0 0 0 63 1270 8103 32268 49335
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64117 18517 2639 1823 425 257 0 0
OW 60 107 301 589 266 138 0 0
VODI 0 23 120 462 607 185 0 0
ODI 0 4 56 347 546 382 17 0
CDI 0 0 11 321 1100 1489 366 42
VCDI 0 0 0 121 1712 8525 32076 49297

Date: 2015-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65272 18021 2922 1709 295 228 0 0
OW 60 47 148 732 296 102 0 0
VODI 0 3 62 445 495 201 0 0
ODI 0 0 20 376 621 385 6 0
CDI 0 0 9 248 1449 1925 277 141
VCDI 0 0 0 83 2202 10170 34406 43692
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65272 17919 2598 1601 387 397 0 0
OW 60 94 314 519 254 106 0 0
VODI 0 42 140 498 370 189 0 0
ODI 0 16 66 402 566 422 36 0
CDI 0 0 43 404 1147 1683 460 42
VCDI 0 0 0 169 2634 10214 34193 43791

Date: 2015-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65975 18473 2257 1556 355 185 66 0
OW 60 69 245 487 300 68 57 0
VODI 0 29 80 494 372 121 70 0
ODI 0 2 53 380 538 296 64 14
CDI 0 0 26 343 1224 1363 338 81
VCDI 0 0 0 330 2286 11249 36695 40447
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65975 18069 2104 1528 439 252 140 0
OW 60 225 174 360 216 40 66 0
VODI 0 157 111 336 325 114 76 0
ODI 0 99 82 356 460 369 97 1
CDI 0 23 187 371 1005 1411 772 118
VCDI 0 0 3 639 2630 11096 36139 40423


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