Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-04-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-04-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62602 17770 2354 1631 628 438 0 0
OW 62 270 496 579 590 187 0 0
VODI 0 46 117 315 908 541 0 0
ODI 0 32 27 164 489 686 13 0
CDI 0 15 74 235 534 1379 193 0
VCDI 0 0 0 44 340 4124 7099 4118
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62715 17485 2348 1707 610 350 52 0
OW 62 315 448 594 587 201 17 0
VODI 0 55 166 375 1000 605 7 0
ODI 0 29 32 161 456 596 36 0
CDI 0 3 58 254 868 1286 290 0
VCDI 0 0 0 47 340 3383 7285 4277
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61627 17991 2756 1574 511 255 18 0
OW 62 158 251 841 437 168 35 0
VODI 0 113 151 612 990 249 30 0
ODI 0 0 15 215 1289 723 40 0
CDI 0 0 0 65 611 1637 249 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 190 3565 7314 4358
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62790 17531 2398 1663 633 273 0 0
OW 62 276 278 527 430 163 7 0
VODI 0 207 235 501 1133 326 26 0
ODI 0 39 84 338 736 464 47 0
CDI 0 2 70 195 532 716 104 0
VCDI 0 0 0 52 436 3901 6919 5006
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62790 17525 2414 1702 650 270 0 0
OW 62 262 253 451 437 150 4 0
VODI 0 214 232 561 910 325 31 0
ODI 0 54 109 316 937 436 50 0
CDI 0 0 57 215 558 776 92 0
VCDI 0 0 0 31 408 3886 6926 5006

Date: 2015-04-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61726 18985 2453 1593 506 331 5 0
OW 61 265 434 715 471 149 12 0
VODI 0 174 189 488 875 247 21 0
ODI 0 43 122 284 312 450 54 0
CDI 0 37 91 288 333 590 144 0
VCDI 0 0 11 133 623 4671 6550 4664
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61726 18994 2557 1663 534 329 6 0
OW 61 248 321 581 426 126 8 0
VODI 0 170 190 567 816 278 25 0
ODI 0 68 135 282 375 323 64 0
CDI 0 24 73 261 355 721 128 0
VCDI 0 0 24 147 614 4661 6555 4664

Date: 2015-04-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63694 17818 2726 1273 228 237 22 0
OW 60 83 232 1136 370 126 1 0
VODI 0 38 51 649 605 140 4 0
ODI 0 10 61 190 655 433 7 0
CDI 0 0 1 98 660 2144 102 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 213 3316 7142 4575
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63693 17522 2469 1594 433 356 24 0
OW 61 185 273 709 443 147 6 0
VODI 0 111 162 452 474 317 12 0
ODI 0 48 56 277 263 429 36 0
CDI 0 56 55 175 468 998 68 0
VCDI 0 27 56 139 650 4149 7132 4575

Date: 2015-04-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64103 17875 2552 1800 437 270 0 0
OW 60 57 158 590 334 100 0 0
VODI 0 41 79 422 529 219 0 0
ODI 0 9 48 164 453 490 21 0
CDI 0 0 28 119 565 1508 323 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 199 2806 7892 4844
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64103 17557 2344 1728 569 317 0 0
OW 60 174 208 523 407 198 0 0
VODI 0 113 125 372 334 363 3 0
ODI 0 61 55 186 338 351 57 0
CDI 0 51 66 157 344 1043 96 0
VCDI 0 26 67 134 525 3121 8080 4844

Date: 2015-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63959 18126 2510 1800 384 242 10 0
OW 60 66 197 473 368 148 0 0
VODI 0 51 48 405 587 270 0 0
ODI 0 12 43 155 372 491 7 0
CDI 0 0 34 151 493 1199 196 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 288 2219 8370 5366
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63959 17811 2405 1869 661 339 10 0
OW 60 167 150 379 384 219 0 0
VODI 0 132 108 300 318 362 0 0
ODI 0 53 61 138 280 421 14 0
CDI 0 64 59 179 328 855 165 0
VCDI 0 28 49 119 521 2373 8394 5366


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