Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-04-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-04-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 94 90 139 4 0 0 0
OW 0 6 34 86 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 18 72 31 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 63 187 69 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 61 293 194 112 2
VCDI 0 0 0 70 166 903 7072 22311
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 197 79 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 65 92 35 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 48 22 9 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 38 65 69 54 0 0
CDI 0 0 19 63 161 329 50 91
VCDI 0 0 7 100 221 1066 9804 19365
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 282 120 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 70 87 19 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 39 55 20 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 75 84 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 10 41 245 300 13 15
VCDI 0 0 0 26 188 1157 8859 20321
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 155 117 31 0 0 0 0
OW 0 20 43 25 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 45 73 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 121 45 3 4 1
CDI 0 0 0 59 264 168 113 24
VCDI 0 0 0 20 620 1452 9727 18943
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 167 127 31 0 0 0 0
OW 0 13 42 35 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 38 87 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 115 49 4 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 280 180 119 25
VCDI 0 0 0 18 598 1439 9716 18943

Date: 2015-04-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 139 71 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 22 64 45 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 32 71 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 64 31 24 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 114 153 205 86 17
VCDI 0 0 0 47 647 2043 8871 19305
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 158 101 17 0 0 0 0
OW 0 11 44 59 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 23 56 21 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 73 33 29 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 103 193 219 72 23
VCDI 0 0 0 36 596 2024 8885 19299

Date: 2015-04-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 82 129 63 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 14 100 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 75 48 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 33 175 24 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 291 309 106 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 210 1465 11321 17620
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 74 115 48 0 0 0 0
OW 0 8 19 95 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 9 63 26 0 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 51 72 25 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 230 231 203 6
VCDI 0 0 0 1 396 1543 11217 17623

Date: 2015-04-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 99 124 75 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 17 92 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 14 73 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 55 59 52 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 153 240 108 15
VCDI 0 0 0 10 139 1227 9678 19818
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 82 100 55 0 0 0 0
OW 0 16 14 81 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 19 73 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 43 53 35 6 0
CDI 0 0 7 46 109 129 257 18
VCDI 0 0 0 34 190 1355 9523 19815

Date: 2015-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 114 96 67 0 0 0 0
OW 0 22 12 105 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 20 66 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 12 68 37 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 53 187 42 41 10
VCDI 0 0 0 31 480 937 8568 21094
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 79 73 71 0 0 0 0
OW 0 20 17 56 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 9 65 12 3 1 0
ODI 0 11 6 52 30 17 14 0
CDI 0 7 19 59 88 38 205 131
VCDI 0 0 18 87 577 935 8389 20973


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