Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-04-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-04-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 26 47 17 1
VCDI 0 0 0 66 259 4164 15545 25737
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 5 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 27 130 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 353 3872 17055 24340
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 4 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 15 52 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 86 215 39 0
VCDI 0 0 0 40 564 4770 17419 22654
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 10 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 53 62 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 118 612 115 0
VCDI 0 0 0 72 675 5657 19198 19291
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 15 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 50 47 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 109 586 95 0
VCDI 0 0 0 72 682 5696 19218 19291

Date: 2015-04-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 60 3 11 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 108 29 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 294 520 172 0
VCDI 0 0 0 81 823 4922 19573 19192
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 8 63 3 10 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 115 25 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 282 476 174 0
VCDI 0 0 0 77 825 4970 19570 19192

Date: 2015-04-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 27 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 70 72 3 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 37 100 36 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 387 601 168 28
VCDI 0 0 0 50 778 4597 19793 19054
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 25 21 0 1 0
VODI 0 0 0 54 60 8 12 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 91 25 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 51 319 462 160 34
VCDI 0 0 0 56 858 4742 19789 19048

Date: 2015-04-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 49 19 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 61 59 6 9 0
ODI 0 0 0 39 117 16 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 78 449 520 146 13
VCDI 0 0 0 188 677 4248 18883 20277
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 27 19 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 51 29 3 3 0
VODI 0 0 0 44 49 7 14 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 105 23 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 83 423 377 180 36
VCDI 0 0 0 175 696 4381 18832 20254

Date: 2015-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 21 9 0 2 0
VODI 0 0 0 46 61 1 13 0
ODI 0 0 0 48 95 48 36 0
CDI 0 0 0 123 426 430 216 10
VCDI 0 0 0 119 1071 5520 18619 18952
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 55 44 0 3 0
OW 0 0 0 23 44 4 23 0
VODI 0 0 0 37 108 7 14 0
ODI 0 0 0 49 138 84 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 55 398 571 283 0
VCDI 0 0 0 138 930 5333 18546 18962


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