Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-04-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-04-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60022 19474 2587 1642 473 361 0 0
OW 51 191 362 691 431 151 0 0
VODI 0 90 77 468 714 272 0 0
ODI 0 74 33 172 520 632 0 0
CDI 0 46 88 62 617 1453 128 0
VCDI 0 0 20 148 475 2876 8421 5278
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60156 19515 2544 1418 435 441 0 0
OW 51 226 419 575 363 196 0 0
VODI 0 93 139 501 709 251 1 0
ODI 0 69 34 224 535 582 17 0
CDI 0 53 61 87 619 930 182 0
VCDI 0 19 100 167 566 3399 8396 5027
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60726 19326 2702 1637 407 375 42 0
OW 63 172 271 743 319 132 6 0
VODI 0 30 105 454 906 184 0 0
ODI 0 18 56 132 981 414 1 0
CDI 0 4 79 195 657 1087 164 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 294 3948 7376 5073
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62688 17818 2393 1668 680 438 0 0
OW 62 236 366 717 435 174 0 0
VODI 0 49 89 375 1052 250 0 0
ODI 0 28 48 136 750 346 0 0
CDI 0 8 82 214 615 1278 71 0
VCDI 0 0 0 58 392 4502 6987 4095
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62688 17840 2436 1769 728 473 0 0
OW 62 218 292 619 380 151 0 0
VODI 0 44 130 367 913 241 0 0
ODI 0 30 42 145 829 361 5 0
CDI 0 7 78 208 673 1236 63 0
VCDI 0 0 0 60 401 4526 6990 4095

Date: 2015-04-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63387 16961 2293 1536 622 439 27 0
OW 62 308 444 679 520 214 19 0
VODI 0 44 169 341 1122 433 3 0
ODI 0 23 39 146 505 593 18 0
CDI 0 1 61 220 761 1440 176 0
VCDI 0 0 0 36 263 3640 7394 4161
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63387 17041 2386 1719 671 431 22 0
OW 62 214 286 528 481 235 25 0
VODI 0 54 236 324 953 356 3 0
ODI 0 24 35 141 636 590 37 0
CDI 0 4 63 216 768 1427 161 0
VCDI 0 0 0 30 284 3720 7389 4161

Date: 2015-04-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62522 17458 2455 1369 374 241 63 0
OW 50 307 363 981 363 130 56 0
VODI 0 112 125 578 843 176 36 0
ODI 0 0 28 235 1442 733 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 59 587 2198 286 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 250 3068 7206 4360
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62510 17568 2420 2113 732 329 102 0
OW 62 214 248 406 671 207 59 0
VODI 0 71 212 319 834 572 15 0
ODI 0 20 39 139 569 554 77 0
CDI 0 4 52 236 692 1338 220 0
VCDI 0 0 0 32 361 3546 7197 4360

Date: 2015-04-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62198 17602 2677 1690 606 278 0 0
OW 62 194 277 586 435 174 2 0
VODI 0 119 165 637 1167 312 11 0
ODI 0 44 68 204 1069 557 16 0
CDI 0 0 38 185 552 977 127 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 335 3634 7594 4498
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62198 17424 2575 2158 1150 398 1 0
OW 62 317 231 402 663 254 9 0
VODI 0 111 252 290 739 363 14 0
ODI 0 56 59 124 571 369 49 0
CDI 0 51 108 229 519 958 162 0
VCDI 0 0 0 109 522 3590 7515 4498

Date: 2015-04-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63010 17457 2359 1639 608 330 11 0
OW 62 293 404 630 402 150 16 0
VODI 0 202 223 523 1060 287 32 0
ODI 0 67 107 321 430 405 81 0
CDI 0 33 89 237 418 538 162 0
VCDI 0 0 3 100 667 4520 6427 4797
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63011 17392 2435 2191 1119 448 12 0
OW 61 295 308 378 420 128 30 0
VODI 0 220 208 326 548 163 40 0
ODI 0 61 85 147 393 275 46 0
CDI 0 80 106 200 478 730 137 0
VCDI 0 4 43 208 627 4486 6464 4797


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