Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-04-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-04-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 131 32 25 0 0 0 0
OW 0 33 53 130 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 34 109 73 2 0 0
ODI 0 1 25 74 100 46 6 5
CDI 0 0 24 94 168 234 120 85
VCDI 0 0 5 171 223 1040 11349 17656
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 107 31 29 0 0 0 0
OW 0 28 64 164 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 25 134 71 10 0 0
ODI 0 6 22 97 79 42 8 6
CDI 0 2 32 120 145 268 100 107
VCDI 0 0 26 189 273 1566 10018 18267
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 134 167 92 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 47 144 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 25 141 102 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 87 129 36 1 0
CDI 0 0 6 100 237 282 136 12
VCDI 0 0 0 103 167 1254 7484 21155
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 121 101 124 11 0 0 0
OW 0 5 46 104 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 22 52 92 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 42 214 69 19 0
CDI 0 0 6 59 238 214 148 0
VCDI 0 0 0 92 162 955 8240 20927
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 123 114 100 8 0 0 0
OW 0 3 35 146 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 19 38 54 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 37 234 65 17 0
CDI 0 0 5 64 264 209 150 0
VCDI 0 0 0 88 150 964 8240 20927

Date: 2015-04-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 135 116 58 0 0 0 0
OW 0 22 68 58 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 52 36 13 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 17 57 105 84 6 0
CDI 0 0 17 60 134 360 59 49
VCDI 0 0 0 93 151 857 9611 19863
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 135 121 49 0 0 0 0
OW 0 22 78 53 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 38 58 12 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 23 57 114 75 10 0
CDI 0 0 10 59 135 401 69 43
VCDI 0 0 0 86 142 823 9597 19869

Date: 2015-04-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 317 122 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 57 108 28 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 30 57 20 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 74 82 64 0 0
CDI 0 0 4 59 258 358 6 33
VCDI 0 0 0 29 150 1163 10936 18097
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 191 60 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 103 63 15 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 64 55 31 20 0 0 0
ODI 0 13 40 52 55 45 0 1
CDI 0 3 34 67 148 402 124 85
VCDI 0 0 20 91 288 1139 10818 18044

Date: 2015-04-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 185 161 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 22 61 32 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 43 93 16 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 71 90 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 185 316 28 8
VCDI 0 0 0 16 211 1172 8022 21286
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 161 59 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 43 74 25 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 110 44 20 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 86 70 26 2 5
CDI 0 0 9 52 133 272 143 74
VCDI 0 0 2 53 281 1193 7905 21215

Date: 2015-04-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 140 102 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 17 40 49 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 35 65 16 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 71 45 28 2 1
CDI 0 0 0 121 167 228 75 20
VCDI 0 0 0 46 658 2275 9411 18444
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 152 73 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 14 83 35 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 28 143 21 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 69 110 39 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 128 195 210 36
VCDI 0 0 0 88 627 2281 9261 18429


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