Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-04-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-04-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60022 19605 2619 1667 473 361 0 0
OW 51 224 415 821 448 151 0 0
VODI 0 107 111 577 787 274 0 0
ODI 0 75 58 246 623 682 6 5
CDI 0 46 112 156 838 1850 404 85
VCDI 0 0 25 398 1042 7039 35719 48926
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60156 19622 2575 1447 435 441 0 0
OW 51 254 483 739 384 196 0 0
VODI 0 118 164 635 780 261 1 0
ODI 0 75 56 321 617 627 25 6
CDI 0 55 93 211 804 1433 385 107
VCDI 0 19 126 391 1157 10193 34866 46739
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60726 19460 2869 1729 407 375 42 0
OW 63 178 318 887 337 132 6 0
VODI 0 30 130 595 1008 188 0 0
ODI 0 18 69 219 1127 456 6 0
CDI 0 4 85 295 930 1561 357 12
VCDI 0 0 0 158 702 11217 29834 50518
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62688 17939 2494 1792 691 438 0 0
OW 62 241 412 821 436 174 0 0
VODI 0 49 111 427 1144 255 0 0
ODI 0 28 61 178 964 415 19 0
CDI 0 8 88 279 881 1555 219 0
VCDI 0 0 0 183 852 10733 30998 49413
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62688 17963 2550 1869 736 473 0 0
OW 62 221 327 765 388 151 0 0
VODI 0 44 149 405 967 246 0 0
ODI 0 30 57 182 1063 426 22 0
CDI 0 7 83 278 967 1515 213 0
VCDI 0 0 0 181 847 10759 31001 49413

Date: 2015-04-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63387 17096 2409 1594 622 439 27 0
OW 62 330 512 737 520 214 19 0
VODI 0 44 221 377 1135 434 3 0
ODI 0 23 56 203 648 679 24 0
CDI 0 1 78 287 958 1864 241 49
VCDI 0 0 0 163 752 8946 33019 48875
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63387 17176 2507 1768 671 431 22 0
OW 62 236 364 581 481 235 25 0
VODI 0 54 274 382 965 359 3 0
ODI 0 24 58 198 789 667 47 0
CDI 0 4 73 280 964 1896 235 43
VCDI 0 0 0 152 765 8988 33001 48881

Date: 2015-04-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62522 17775 2577 1388 374 241 63 0
OW 50 364 471 1009 365 130 56 0
VODI 0 112 155 635 863 177 36 0
ODI 0 0 36 309 1569 809 23 0
CDI 0 0 4 125 925 2685 333 33
VCDI 0 0 0 115 794 8014 35701 46210
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62510 17759 2480 2123 732 329 102 0
OW 62 317 311 421 672 207 59 0
VODI 0 135 267 350 855 572 15 0
ODI 0 33 79 191 659 603 77 1
CDI 0 7 86 309 912 1844 364 86
VCDI 0 0 20 187 1060 8501 35595 46156

Date: 2015-04-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62198 17787 2838 1701 606 278 0 0
OW 62 216 338 618 440 174 2 0
VODI 0 119 208 730 1202 312 11 0
ODI 0 44 73 275 1211 613 17 0
CDI 0 0 38 232 830 1715 194 8
VCDI 0 0 0 76 1150 10176 34528 46028
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62198 17585 2634 2161 1150 398 1 0
OW 62 360 305 427 666 254 9 0
VODI 0 114 362 334 773 363 14 0
ODI 0 56 75 210 694 438 54 5
CDI 0 51 117 281 734 1688 365 74
VCDI 0 0 2 219 1422 10127 34309 45957

Date: 2015-04-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63010 17597 2461 1649 608 330 11 0
OW 62 310 444 679 402 150 16 0
VODI 0 211 258 588 1088 292 32 0
ODI 0 67 114 403 552 493 90 1
CDI 0 33 89 368 844 1338 453 20
VCDI 0 0 3 186 2101 12626 35051 42018
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63011 17544 2508 2194 1119 448 12 0
OW 61 309 391 413 421 128 30 0
VODI 0 220 236 469 614 183 40 0
ODI 0 61 85 222 586 408 67 0
CDI 0 80 106 235 821 1491 627 36
VCDI 0 4 43 340 2034 12571 34877 42003


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