Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-04-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-04-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61982 18100 2327 1197 283 375 0 0
OW 52 146 331 815 331 144 0 0
VODI 0 86 138 661 980 235 6 0
ODI 0 58 60 305 700 549 23 0
CDI 0 64 69 192 527 1222 171 18
VCDI 0 22 92 305 1090 9586 36594 47212
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61601 18381 2358 1252 351 448 15 0
OW 51 173 300 847 460 143 23 0
VODI 0 97 191 651 870 233 50 0
ODI 0 66 87 262 572 610 53 0
CDI 0 54 73 186 517 1211 353 26
VCDI 0 40 116 304 850 8230 35892 49051
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61291 18808 2532 1570 385 356 2 0
OW 51 130 417 818 382 107 10 0
VODI 0 63 117 714 907 135 19 0
ODI 0 56 62 233 661 487 26 0
CDI 0 1 73 298 681 1740 376 4
VCDI 0 0 0 111 874 8317 35725 48509
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61267 18312 2684 1684 476 405 0 0
OW 51 213 425 787 436 148 0 0
VODI 0 88 110 656 786 247 0 0
ODI 0 69 56 231 556 641 11 0
CDI 0 24 103 236 649 1937 385 14
VCDI 0 0 3 259 1113 7444 36292 48250
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61267 18321 2687 1788 479 396 0 0
OW 51 200 384 667 388 163 0 0
VODI 0 91 151 662 767 231 0 0
ODI 0 69 55 250 554 572 10 0
CDI 0 25 101 224 686 1952 375 5
VCDI 0 0 3 262 1142 7508 36303 48259

Date: 2015-04-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60175 19364 2603 1665 413 447 0 0
OW 51 248 408 804 410 186 0 0
VODI 0 128 140 549 867 255 0 0
ODI 0 83 59 269 666 687 18 19
CDI 0 56 101 211 743 1725 419 124
VCDI 0 0 70 404 987 7653 34498 49543
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60175 19432 2619 1775 401 479 0 0
OW 51 177 376 640 396 178 0 0
VODI 0 108 161 604 761 201 0 0
ODI 0 89 63 272 681 557 16 8
CDI 0 72 73 212 814 1887 382 106
VCDI 0 1 89 399 1033 7651 34537 49572

Date: 2015-04-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61748 18491 2611 1455 347 233 131 0
OW 50 224 417 930 380 104 80 0
VODI 0 30 132 638 786 171 91 0
ODI 0 15 68 213 850 744 74 0
CDI 0 0 58 268 1029 1807 567 15
VCDI 0 0 0 152 800 10511 32863 47965
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61747 18339 2492 1582 381 290 230 0
OW 51 174 377 614 314 129 72 0
VODI 0 112 167 545 674 211 44 0
ODI 0 66 68 266 644 576 141 0
CDI 0 58 82 214 1062 1509 635 10
VCDI 0 11 100 435 1117 10855 32684 47970

Date: 2015-04-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61346 19087 2708 1904 601 364 0 0
OW 62 216 319 794 509 130 0 0
VODI 0 55 129 494 1209 242 0 0
ODI 0 36 51 247 802 411 26 0
CDI 0 20 98 262 761 1285 316 2
VCDI 0 0 2 215 1000 11640 28915 50790
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61345 18898 2498 1737 723 570 0 0
OW 63 228 332 708 350 88 0 0
VODI 0 129 182 504 814 194 0 0
ODI 0 61 102 244 977 439 31 0
CDI 0 81 88 301 798 1017 337 41
VCDI 0 17 105 422 1220 11764 28889 50751

Date: 2015-04-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62602 17864 2444 1770 632 438 0 0
OW 62 276 530 665 591 187 0 0
VODI 0 46 135 387 939 542 0 0
ODI 0 32 27 227 676 755 16 0
CDI 0 15 74 300 853 1620 322 3
VCDI 0 0 0 180 765 9191 29716 52166
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62601 17728 2323 1831 887 724 0 0
OW 63 237 392 382 420 156 0 0
VODI 0 132 235 289 772 532 10 0
ODI 0 68 110 229 579 610 61 13
CDI 0 68 130 359 671 1387 441 76
VCDI 0 0 20 439 1127 9324 29542 52080


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