Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-04-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-03-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59019 19515 2715 1633 476 214 4 0
OW 53 112 341 564 335 155 22 0
VODI 0 40 197 460 672 257 27 0
ODI 0 4 83 345 640 483 22 0
CDI 0 0 25 251 673 1268 149 0
VCDI 0 0 0 103 694 4131 7762 5656
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58410 20109 2555 1604 547 234 0 0
OW 52 203 269 480 424 180 1 0
VODI 0 105 233 362 696 285 21 0
ODI 0 37 123 260 529 629 35 0
CDI 0 12 58 263 437 1324 208 0
VCDI 0 3 65 220 482 4111 8092 5442
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59590 19611 2643 1399 401 256 25 0
OW 52 112 290 662 313 113 31 0
VODI 0 66 134 479 705 209 37 0
ODI 0 38 68 232 793 523 84 0
CDI 0 38 56 149 422 1371 287 0
VCDI 0 15 108 186 519 3292 8248 5543
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61015 18837 2272 1338 372 314 0 0
OW 52 135 310 662 326 145 0 0
VODI 0 80 128 479 784 241 0 0
ODI 0 48 61 233 805 542 0 0
CDI 0 54 43 134 475 1224 23 0
VCDI 0 30 91 188 499 3202 9275 4683
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61015 18824 2279 1430 416 329 0 0
OW 52 132 294 574 316 140 0 0
VODI 0 88 144 499 856 253 0 0
ODI 0 48 56 217 706 518 0 0
CDI 0 49 35 133 465 1158 26 0
VCDI 0 43 97 181 502 3270 9272 4683

Date: 2015-04-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61448 18299 2337 1385 327 440 0 0
OW 51 127 285 777 394 174 4 0
VODI 0 73 152 495 943 277 22 0
ODI 0 51 36 166 577 618 35 0
CDI 0 57 40 157 333 1027 161 0
VCDI 0 19 75 155 409 2825 8868 5481
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61448 18278 2401 1493 363 422 0 0
OW 51 119 232 713 463 182 3 0
VODI 0 80 144 493 827 272 21 0
ODI 0 53 29 145 568 579 36 0
CDI 0 68 28 119 333 1096 162 0
VCDI 0 28 91 172 429 2810 8868 5481

Date: 2015-04-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61935 18305 2278 1282 282 347 0 0
OW 51 126 461 902 250 98 0 0
VODI 0 53 95 707 851 121 6 0
ODI 0 52 65 176 795 344 22 0
CDI 0 0 42 197 531 1526 178 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 281 2701 8682 5357
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61935 18089 2267 1531 528 431 0 0
OW 51 189 234 712 454 93 1 0
VODI 0 103 189 430 597 172 23 0
ODI 0 51 89 204 458 425 38 0
CDI 0 59 59 189 388 1041 97 0
VCDI 0 45 103 199 565 2975 8729 5357

Date: 2015-04-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61323 18406 2453 1607 539 402 2 0
OW 51 130 423 636 454 141 11 0
VODI 0 63 69 566 762 237 22 0
ODI 0 55 38 169 471 558 36 0
CDI 0 0 70 189 546 1703 193 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 354 2634 8569 5202
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61323 18169 2392 1764 736 528 12 0
OW 51 181 284 542 483 118 16 0
VODI 0 126 158 337 592 340 29 0
ODI 0 61 57 188 411 579 36 0
CDI 0 102 58 155 386 1249 119 0
VCDI 0 15 104 197 518 2861 8621 5202

Date: 2015-04-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60022 19474 2587 1642 473 361 0 0
OW 51 191 362 691 431 151 0 0
VODI 0 90 77 468 714 272 0 0
ODI 0 74 33 172 520 632 0 0
CDI 0 46 88 62 617 1453 128 0
VCDI 0 0 20 148 475 2876 8421 5278
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60022 19284 2509 1818 691 464 0 0
OW 51 215 276 510 470 153 0 0
VODI 0 146 144 367 634 303 0 0
ODI 0 75 55 162 378 690 9 0
CDI 0 76 45 126 560 1228 128 0
VCDI 0 79 138 200 497 2907 8412 5278


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