Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-04-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-03-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 8 5 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 15 4 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 16 4 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 14 15 3 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 10 21 26 47 103 9
VCDI 0 0 16 104 158 843 10092 20561
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 8 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 12 7 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 16 34 13 1 0 0
ODI 0 2 22 45 65 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 23 47 95 164 35 1
VCDI 0 0 25 148 252 1231 8612 21190
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 16 14 12 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 18 46 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 13 62 44 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 39 60 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 7 40 101 94 47 7
VCDI 0 0 0 58 181 934 8631 21625
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 38 10 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 11 22 47 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 17 70 61 8 0 0
ODI 0 4 16 51 68 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 27 66 98 143 29 21
VCDI 0 0 10 82 257 996 10354 19519
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 38 11 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 10 21 37 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 17 71 66 8 0 0
ODI 0 5 16 54 61 35 0 0
CDI 0 0 29 72 96 133 38 21
VCDI 0 0 8 79 254 1000 10345 19519

Date: 2015-04-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 57 12 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 19 19 61 45 3 0 0
VODI 0 19 19 72 60 28 0 0
ODI 0 18 26 70 43 41 2 0
CDI 0 8 29 35 48 108 33 8
VCDI 0 0 25 106 253 683 9917 20213
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 60 8 1 19 0 0 0
OW 0 20 20 52 24 8 0 0
VODI 0 21 23 75 67 22 0 0
ODI 0 17 31 61 33 43 6 0
CDI 0 3 32 52 55 104 35 8
VCDI 0 0 16 105 251 686 9911 20213

Date: 2015-04-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 74 34 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 30 41 47 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 19 86 79 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 39 87 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 5 89 82 131 40 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 130 431 7478 23066
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 58 6 1 28 3 0 0
OW 0 21 18 34 37 2 0 0
VODI 0 13 28 52 66 53 0 0
ODI 0 12 26 44 46 48 18 0
CDI 0 1 25 36 27 82 79 1
VCDI 0 0 9 104 190 427 7421 23066

Date: 2015-04-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 121 43 20 0 0 0 0
OW 0 19 35 65 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 42 124 73 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 67 57 28 2 0
CDI 0 0 11 93 94 143 46 0
VCDI 0 0 0 130 241 880 9801 19889
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 58 11 10 30 0 0 0
OW 0 21 10 27 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 29 25 84 34 0 0 0
ODI 0 21 37 72 64 33 1 0
CDI 0 19 29 56 58 123 140 37
VCDI 0 0 35 250 289 898 9708 19852

Date: 2015-04-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 131 32 25 0 0 0 0
OW 0 33 53 130 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 34 109 73 2 0 0
ODI 0 1 25 74 100 46 6 5
CDI 0 0 24 94 168 234 120 85
VCDI 0 0 5 171 223 1040 11349 17656
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 49 2 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 23 13 24 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 30 16 69 28 4 2 0
ODI 0 22 35 85 49 49 30 0
CDI 0 30 27 82 113 149 142 11
VCDI 0 28 80 333 391 1120 11301 17735


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